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  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • 26-Feb – EM-21: Bearish GBP, bullish CAD - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Decline in leading indicators index is probably temporary • Euro area – Weak lending data takes the shine off sentiment surveys • Brazil – COPOM’s hiking cycle: The end is near • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank ...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • Argentina-Brazil: It takes two to tango - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher • Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil • The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant ...

  • Mexico – Not quite there yet - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth • In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior • Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • 15-Jan – COPOM to maintain 50bps pace - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely remained at 5.8% in December • Japan – Machinery orders probably continued rising • United States – Two FOMC voters signal optimism on economy • Market focus • Surveys are divided 50/50...

  • 19-Dec – That giant sucking sound - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain the asset purchase programme • UK – Final print to confirm Q3 GDP growth at 0.8% • Colombia – BanRep expected to be on hold at 3.25%, but tone is dovish • Market focus • Surprising USD 10b...

  • 12-Dec – China’s on/offshore liquidity contrast - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted at a slower pace in October • US – Robust auto sales likely boosted holiday retail sales • Latam – A busy day across the region on Thursday • Market focus • Central Economic Work ...



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02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations

Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely continue to blame low inflation on energy...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.