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  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 23-Jan – Trip notes from Japan - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Upside to IP expected to be muted • Vietnam – Jan inflation likely edged higher, but still controllable • US – Existing home sales were likely up slightly in December • Market focus • Japanese clients are positi...

  • 20-Dec – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – USD-CNY fix rises following Fed taper • Singapore – Stable inflation and industrial production expected • Vietnam – 2013 GDP likely grew 5.3% y/y; inflation is well contained • Market focus • EM-21 reserves inc...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 24-Sep – Merkel triumphs; now for the tough part - Updated Mon September 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Top 3 Asian rates trades post-FOMC – Thailand, India and Singapore • Taiwan – Export orders to pick up ahead of year-end sales season • Vietnam – Q3 GDP likely rose moderately • Market focus • A victorious Angela Merkel...

  • 23-Aug – Drawing the line in the EM debt sell-off - Updated Thu August 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Industrial production likely rebounded in July • Vietnam – August CPI expected to remain on an uptrend • US – New home sales likely edged down, but uptrend seems solid • Market focus • EM bonds have seen outflow...

  • 01-Jul – Macro 1: Financial-market sentiment 0 - Updated Sun June 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – We forecast gradual VND depreciation • Australia – RBA is likely to leave rate unchanged on AUD depreciation • US – Regional surveys signal a rise in the nationwide ISM index • Market focus • Recent financial-marke...

  • 24-Jun – CNY re-peg amid capital-market volatility - Updated Sun June 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Investment and consumption likely supported Q2 GDP • Philippines – Disappointing exports likely widened trade deficit further • Hong Kong – Fragile external backdrop to weigh on trade recovery • Market focus • Nor...

  • 23-May – Bernanke bolsters bond bears - Updated Wed May 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Inflationary pressure to ease for now • Germany – Looking for some better news from the IFO report • US – Data watching returns to centre stage after Bernanke’s comments • Market focus • Bernanke’s testimony reve...

  • Vietnam – SBV maintains pro-growth bias - Updated Wed May 15, 2013

    SBV cuts policy rates by 100bps, lowering the refinancing rate to 7% • We expect one more 50bps cut in Q3 if the authorities remain comfortable with inflation • We adjust our inflation forecasts for 2013 and 2014; we still see inflation on an uptr...

  • 23-Apr – Gold searches for a new floor - Updated Mon April 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Muted inflation in Q1 • Germany – IFO will likely signal that weakness extended into Q2 • Vietnam – Softer inflation paves the way for a rate cut • Market focus • The gold price has bounced strongly after the r...

  • Vietnam – Looking for a better year ahead - Updated Fri April 12, 2013

    • Q1 GDP confirms a subdued start to 2013, partly due to the Lunar New Year • We expect one more 50bps cut in Q2 given the current benign inflation outlook • We expect the economy to recover moderately throughout the year ...

  • 22-Mar – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Thu March 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation likely slowed further • Taiwan – IP likely to show that growth recovery remains intact • Vietnam – Slower growth in Q1 • Market focus • We raise our USD-KRW, USD-TWD; USD-SGD forecasts; lower USD-THB ...

  • Asia Focus - Transforming, rebalancing, outperforming - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    • The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...

  • Vietnam – Navigating the macro landscape - Updated Tue February 26, 2013

    The slowdown in domestic growth has been beneficial for inflation and the trade balance • Addressing bank NPLs, reforming SOEs and managing the property-market slowdown are key structural challenges for the government • We analyse the economic im...

  • 22-Feb-13 – Bracing for the Italian election - Updated Thu February 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Inflation likely increased • Singapore – Inflation probably stayed above-trend • Commodities – Gold takes a tumble and is searching for a new floor • Market focus • A centre-left-plus-Monti victory is probably th...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...



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27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to...

Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities, as an asset class, have outperformed other...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.