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  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • 10-Mar – USD beached on the ‘island of stability’ - Updated Sun March 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put after its last surprise announcement • Philippines – Export growth likely started 2014 on a firm footing • United Kingdom – 2014 output rises to meet growing domestic and external demand • ...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 10-Feb – India: Softer inflation amid growth pains - Updated Sun February 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – December export growth likely remained robust • Japan – December machinery orders likely slightly dropped m/m • US – Another lacklustre payroll print; but tapering is set to continue • Market focus • India Jan...

  • 29-Jan – Preparing for Japan’s sales-tax hike - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q4 • New Zealand – We expect RBNZ to leave rate unchanged at a low 2.50% • Argentina – We raise our USD-ARS forecasts • Market focus • December data is likely to show earl...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • 09-Dec – Steady labour data, but the Fed is patient - Updated Sun December 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth likely accelerated in October • Japan – Machinery orders, CGPI likely to show the impact of Abenomics • UK – Downtick in October IP, but set for better data ahead • Market focus • US labour mark...

  • 25-Nov – Asian manufacturing continues to recover - Updated Sun November 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in October • Japan – BoJ minutes expected to show little change in policy stance • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in September • Market focus • Four Asian countries will ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 24-Jun – CNY re-peg amid capital-market volatility - Updated Sun June 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Investment and consumption likely supported Q2 GDP • Philippines – Disappointing exports likely widened trade deficit further • Hong Kong – Fragile external backdrop to weigh on trade recovery • Market focus • Nor...

  • 10-Jun – Trouble with the (JGB) curve - Updated Sun June 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth likely saw a modest improvement in April • Malaysia – Domestic demand expected to sustain industrial activity • UK – Signs of recovery in the industrial sector • Market focus • The BoJ is likely ...

  • 28-Mar – Come on, BoJ - Updated Wed March 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Fitch upgrades to investment grade • South Korea – We expect a modest rebound in February IP • Thailand – Current account likely deteriorated further • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to front-load open-ended...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • 14-Mar – Yen ‘Kuro-sion’ will be gradual - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Modest pick-up likely in January retail sales • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained steady in January • Asia – Strong foreign demand for KRW and THB bonds in February • Market focus • Kuroda is wide...

  • 11-Mar – AXJ capital inflows, but no FX rally - Updated Sun March 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic prices are expected to remain low for longer • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed January export growth • India – February trade deficit might provide cues for monetary policy • Market focus •...

  • 14-Jan-13 – BOJ under pressure - Updated Sun January 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Marginal improvement likely in November retail sales • Philippines – Consolidation in remittance growth in November • UK – Inflation is still sticky, but is likely to decelerate in 2013 • Market focus • Japan’...

  • 04-Dec-12 – Asian inflation outlook remains benign [CORRECTION] - Updated Tue December 4, 2012

    This supersedes the version dated 04 December 2012. Amends ‘Key data/events today’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Australia – Slower growth expected in Q3 • Taiwan – Inflation to remain above the central bank’s comfort level • UK – Further belt t...

  • 26-Nov-12 – Central bank inflows support AXJ gains - Updated Sun November 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index to suggest a moderate growth rebound in Q4 • Philippines – Narrower trade deficit likely boosted C/A, reserves • Hong Kong – Exports likely to have normalised • Market focus • AXJ currencies have outp...

  • 05-Nov-12 – The lucky currency - Updated Sun November 4, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum was likely flat • Singapore – PMI likely improved but stayed in contractionary territory • United States – Strong sales imply better ISM non-manufacturing • Market focus • We expect the ...



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Trade idea

08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the BoK to maintain its 7-day repo rate at 2.50%...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.