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  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • 27-Feb – The hidden North Asia risk story - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely fell on adverse base effect and external factors • India – Yet another quarter of weak economic activity • US – Durable goods orders: More than the weather • Market focus • Authorities’ desire to di...

  • 13-Feb – China’s January surprise - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – January WPI is likely to surprise • Euro area – Chance of an upside surprise for flash Q4 GDP • US – January retail sales likely off to a slow start in 2014 • Market focus • January’s trade growth accelerated; mar...

  • Offshore RMB – A galloping year ahead for the RGI - Updated Fri February 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 5.9% m/m in December, bringing 2013 increase to 84%; deposit growth is the key driver • We expect RGI to reach 2,200 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.15-1.20tn by end-2014 • Dim Sum bonds enjoy a strong start to 2014;...

  • 07-Feb – Closing the gap in USD-AXJ - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Annual current account surplus likely shrank in 2013 • Taiwan – January trade data likely to boost producers’ confidence • US – January payrolls: We see strength, beyond the harsh weather • Market focus • Investo...

  • 22-Jan – Korea likely to show steady Q4 GDP growth - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data may show a rebound in economic activity • Singapore – Lower transport inflation likely slowed December inflation • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to leave policy rate unchanged • Market focus • Q4 G...

  • 10-Jan – India’s inflation to slow; buy 5Y GoISecs - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Kenya – Policy rate expected to stay on hold until Q3 • Taiwan – TWD NEER weakness expected to aid export outlook • United States – A moderate increase in December payrolls is likely • Market focus • December CPI is likely...

  • 18-Dec – Risks to our FX calls - Updated Tue December 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q3-2013 GDP likely showed a rebound from the drought • Taiwan – Export orders to show improving demand into 2014 • United States – We expect a dovish Fed to keep QE at USD 85bn/month • Market focus • We remai...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 12 Nov – BoE optimistic on growth but no early hike - Updated Mon November 11, 2013

    • Bond-driven AXJ currencies to weaken near-term • Japan – Machinery orders likely dropped slightly on a m/m basis • South Korea – Outflows a blip, stay Overweight KRW Market focus • BoE Inflation Report forecasts will likely counter the market ...

  • The Renminbi’s 2020 odyssey - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....

  • Taiwan – On a stronger footing - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...

  • 18-Oct – The temporary debt-ceiling solution and Asia - Updated Thu October 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – First suspension of reverse repo operations in three months • Japan – Trade deficit to stay in the red due to higher import cost • Taiwan – Year-end holiday sales demand to help lift export orders • Market focus • ...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Hong Kong – Fewer headwinds, more tailwinds - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Hong Kong has weathered plenty of external headwinds over the past quarter. They include China’s late-June liquidity squeeze, which exacerbated worries about its growth, and rising concerns about Fed tapering, which caused significant sell-offs in s...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 07-Oct – Asian central banks to maintain status quo - Updated Sun October 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Pakistan – PKR is under pressure due to declining FX reserves • India – SIGMA provides a mildly bullish signal for duration in October • Germany – PMIs suggest a healthy pick-up in factory orders • Market focus • BI and Bo...



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07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to stay put at its April 7-8 meeting,...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.