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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 09-Mar – BoT to stay put on policy rate - Updated Sun March 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - Weak consumer confidence suggests further deflationary pressure • Philippines - Export growth seen rebounding modestly • China – Little support for band widening near-term • Market focus • We reiterate our call that...

  • 05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% ...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • 19-Jan – A cold December in China - Updated Sun January 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Growth concerns put downward pressure on rates • Nigeria – Monetary policy rate expected to stay on hold • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Growth momentum remains weak in Chin...

  • 14-Jan – Korea: All eyes on BoK policy direction - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect the BI rate to be unchanged in January • Japan – Machinery orders likely rebounded; PPI likely slowed further • Australia – Job creation was likely muted in December • Market focus • We expect the BoK ...

  • 09-Jan – US NFPs: Regressing to the mean - Updated Thu January 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • TWD – USD-TWD gains may slow near-term • India – The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • India – Increase in December CPI is unlikely to be a concern • Market focus • We expect NFPs to moderate to 240,000 ...

  • 18-Dec – Fed meeting – Three’s a crowd - Updated Wed December 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ unlikely to move at its last policy meeting of 2014 • CNH – Tight onshore liquidity to keep CNH points elevated • UK – Consumer confidence likely improved in December • Market focus • FOMC is ‘patient’ but Chair...

  • 11-Dec – A cold winter in China - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – CPI to be pulled lower by base effect • US – Core November retail sales likely remained healthy • US – Democrats’ ‘rebellion’ leads to higher uncertainty on funding bill • Market focus • China’s November growth pro...

  • 02-Dec – The oil slick hits commodity currencies - Updated Mon December 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • NEA FX revisions following OPEC’s November meeting • Nigeria – Revisiting our USD-NGN forecasts • USD-COP FX forecasts revised • Market focus • Following the OPEC meeting, we revise down our forecasts for the AUD, NZD and C...

  • 28-Nov – No quick fix to China’s growth - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have spiked in November • South Korea – Exports likely slowed in November • Thailand – November inflation was likely subdued • Market focus • We expect China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • 21-Nov – Currency wars and NEA NEERs - Updated Thu November 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Exports likely recovered in October, albeit slowly • Taiwan – Strong IP data likely supports the employment outlook • Germany – November IFO will likely deteriorate • Market focus • CNY to sustain CNY NEER appre...

  • 17-Nov – Quietly resilient Taiwan - Updated Sun November 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes likely to reiterate a ‘period of stability in rates’ • UK – We expect subdued inflationary pressures for some time • United States – IP data: Don’t take the ISM surveys at face value • Market focus •...

  • 13-Nov – Paving the way for Stock Connect - Updated Wed November 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – GDP growth likely rebounded after a weak Q2 • Malaysia – Manufacturing production likely supported overall IP • Euro area – Q3 GDP growth likely expanded 0.1% • Market focus • The relaxation of the daily convers...

  • 12-Nov – China’s weak growth calls for more easing - Updated Tue November 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in November • Japan – Machinery orders likely continued to grow m/m • South Korea – BoK likely to hold the base rate steady at its MPC meeting • Market focus • We expect Chi...

  • 11-Nov – BoE set to signal no rate hike until H2-2015 - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Offshore RMB market gets a boost • India – IP likely slowed in September; October CPI likely moderated • Ghana – Tightening, but format is uncertain • Market focus • We expect the BoE to lower its UK growth and ...

  • CNH market faces short-term liquidity stress - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    • Stock Connect, CGB auction and pan-China two-way sweeping further tighten CNH liquidity near-term • But CNH rates are likely near their peak as onshore-offshore rates have largely converged • We recommend lengthening duration of CNH CGBs and out...

  • 07-Nov – Payroll report to test ‘Econ 101’ - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Growing concern over a weak JPY • China – Steady exports likely contributed to growth in October • India – SIGMA signal is bullish for duration in November • Market focus • October payrolls likely strong again...

  • 06-Nov – BoJ easing reinforces relative value in AXJ - Updated Wed November 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports may have remained lacklustre versus Q2 • Korea – Taking profit on the 3Y KTB and 3Y KRW IRS • Germany – IP and exports likely rebounded in September • Market focus • BoJ easing reinforces policy divergen...



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09-Mar – BoT to stay put on policy rate

Top 3 data/events • China - Weak consumer confidence suggests further deflationary pressure • Philippines - Export growth seen rebounding modestly • China – Little support for band widening near-term • Market focus • We reiterate our call that the BoT will keep the rate on hold at the...

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