• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013
• Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014
• Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away
• Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic
• Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible
• Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...
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