• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic
• Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible
• Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...
• Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013
• Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014
• Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away
Key events and data
• India – Improved core-sector activity to support February IIP
• Indonesia – BI expected to keep its policy rate unchanged
• Philippines – Export growth likely remained positive in February
• Q2 brings transit...
• We examine which countries within the region would benefit from an oil shock
• Brazil will eventually benefit, due to the major discoveries in the pre-salt layers
• Chile would be the economy most negatively impacted by an increase in oil prices...
Key events and data
• Singapore – We expect February inflation to have ticked up to 5% y/y from 4.8% prior
• Taiwan – February’s IP likely rebounded
• Colombia – We expect Banrep to raise the base rate to 5.50%
• US-based equity PM...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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