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  • CNY – The real story on CNY weakness - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    China’s FX market has re-opened amid sustained onshore corporate demand for FX • The financial account has deteriorated abruptly, due mainly to trimming or hedging of FX liabilities • We examine onshore corporate flows and identify a powerful shif...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • Bank Indonesia cuts BI rate - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    • Event - Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market today by cutting the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.50%. This move was against the market consensus view of no change. BI kept the BI over...

  • INR – Rajan, the RBI’s REER and official reserves - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    RBI Governor Rajan has downplayed arguments that high REERs leave INR ‘grossly uncompetitive’ • RBI REERs remain on an upward trajectory, but historic averages offer little insight into INR fair value • Policy focus on REERs is a big improvement o...

  • 29-Jan – If Singapore is the next Switzerland… - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – IP likely rose m/m in December; inflation likely slowed • South Korea – We expect industrial production to have improved in December • Euro area – CPI likely to move further into negative territory in January • Mark...

  • MAS policy easing - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation today, Wednesday 28 January 2015, with 2 sessions (4:00PM SG/HK and 9:00AM NY) with: • Callum Henderson, Head, FX Research (host) • Devesh Divya, FX Strategist • J...

  • Take profit on long USD-SGD - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    We recommend taking profit on the long USD-SGD trade • We remain fundamentally bearish on the SGD and will look to re-enter the trade at better levels • We maintain a short- and medium-term Underweight FX weighting on the SGD...

  • 26-Jan – ECB reinforces AXJ cross-currents - Updated Sun January 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit to widen in November • Taiwan – Monitoring index to show economy on steady growth path • Vietnam – January data likely to show an acceleration ahead of Tet • Market focus • PBoC signals defensive...

  • 16-Jan – The SNB, RBI and policy credibility - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Revised IP likely to show a smaller m/m drop • India – RBI surprised with an inter-meeting rate cut • US – Not immune to global disinflationary trends as CPI is set to drop • Market focus • SNB step to scrap EUR-CHF...

  • Cross-currents – Relative value in Asia [Correction] - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts. • AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters • The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...

  • CNY – A new focus on trade-weighted stability - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    • Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals • We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2 • We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...

  • FX strategy 2015: Our currency, your problem - Updated Tue December 9, 2014

    We expect more USD strength in H1-2015; significant divergence among EM currencies is still likely Five FX themes for 2015: Dollar divergence, currency wars, cross-currents, valuation and volatility Asian currencies are being buffeted by powerful ...

  • Close USD-CNY NDF long in CNH-CNY forward trade - Updated Thu November 13, 2014

    USD-CNY NDF points are steep, may move lower into year-end on gradual CNY spot and fix appreciation Seasonal factors, China’s external balance and internationalisation ambitions are constructive for CNY Leveraged funds that are long USD-CNY 6M NDF...

  • 06-Nov – BoJ easing reinforces relative value in AXJ - Updated Wed November 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports may have remained lacklustre versus Q2 • Korea – Taking profit on the 3Y KTB and 3Y KRW IRS • Germany – IP and exports likely rebounded in September • Market focus • BoJ easing reinforces policy divergen...

  • INR – Reward and risk in the rupee - Updated Tue November 4, 2014

    We expect USD-INR to remain range-bound into 2015; short-term risks are skewed to the upside India’s macroeconomic fundamentals are improving and the INR remains attractive However, the RBI continues to build FX reserves, and local importers are u...

  • Short USD-CNH 6M vs. long USD-CNY 6M NDFs - Updated Fri October 17, 2014

    Despite mixed cyclical data, more constructive CNY signs are emerging • Deliverable spot rates are likely to converge with the fix on a resumption of overseas FX selling onshore • We recommend selling USD in USD-CNH 6M forwards vs. USD long in USD...

  • 15-Oct – Lower oil prices and EM divergence - Updated Tue October 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Asia macro trackers – Singapore growth is in line with our tracker • Euro area – We expect the final release of CPI to match the flash • US – Retail sales likely hit by m/m drop in car sales and cheaper gas • Market focus •...

  • Currency wars take centre stage - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    The ‘currency wars’ began in the US, and have since moved across the G10 • With the ECB weakening the EUR, the euro area and Japan are now exporting deflation to EM • We appear to be seeing the start of an official AXJ response, suggesting AXJ FX ...

  • 07-Oct – Brazil: To a run-off we go - Updated Mon October 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank in August • China – CNH discount likely to narrow after the Golden Week holiday • United States – FOMC minutes likely hawkish • Market focus • Brazil’s presidential elections will go to a ...

  • Q4 – Divergence - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodity outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...



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25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year...

Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX market reopens amid sustained onshore demand for...

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