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  • SDR: One small step for China, one giant leap for CNY - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    Renminbi’s SDR inclusion is only a matter of time; we now see a 60% probability this year • Renminbi broadly meets SDR criteria; capital account liberalisation to accelerate sharply in 2015 • We expect a persistent rise in global diversification i...

  • Sell SGD-PHP via 3M NDFs - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    We expect the SGD-PHP cross to resume its weakening trend given strong macro divergence • We recommend selling SGD-PHP 3M NDFs; spot target: 32.00, spot stop-loss: 34.20 • We raise our short-term FX weighting on the PHP to Overweight; we remain Un...

  • Indonesia – Reality check - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    We lower our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% for 2015 and 5.3% for 2016 • We expect BI to cut the BI rate by 25bps in Q2-2015, before hiking by 25bps each in Q3 and Q4 • We maintain our USD-IDR forecast at 13,700 by mid-2015 and 13,500 by end-20...

  • 01-May – A reality check for EUR rates - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April • Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month • Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece • Market focus • Sudden steepening i...

  • Take profit on short SGD-THB trade - Updated Wed April 22, 2015

    We recommend taking profit on the short SGD-THB via 6M forward outright trade • We expect USD-SGD to remain under slight pressure in the near-term • We maintain short-term Neutral FX weighting on the THB and Underweight on the SGD...

  • 22-Apr – Clouds gather over the INR - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP likely contracted again in March • Taiwan – IP data likely to have slowed due to base effects • South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have been subdued • Market focus • India’s equity-market outperformance has stalle...

  • 17-Apr – USD-CNY forecast revisions - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – March export orders likely supported by rising tech demand • Malaysia – Inflation to increase from April • US – March CPI inflation data likely to support the Fed’s ‘no rush’ view • Market focus • We raise CNY fore...

  • Risks and opportunities 2015 - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    The biggest risks and opportunities in the global economy today • Their economic and market implications • Q&A...

  • Risks and opportunities 2015 - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications. • We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...

  • China – Q&A on local government debt swap plan - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    China announces CNY 1.0tn debt-for-bond swap plan for local governments This should reduce refinancing risk and lower local governments’ interest burden We see the proposed plan as positive for China’s sovereign credit profile The move is likely ...



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01-May – A reality check for EUR rates

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April • Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month • Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece • Market focus • Sudden steepening in the EUR curve looks reasonable given...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.