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  • Asia data previews – 2-8 May 2015 - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines • We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it • Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...

  • 17-Apr – USD-CNY forecast revisions - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – March export orders likely supported by rising tech demand • Malaysia – Inflation to increase from April • US – March CPI inflation data likely to support the Fed’s ‘no rush’ view • Market focus • We raise CNY fore...

  • Asia data previews – 3-10 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 3, 2015

    BoJ, RBA and RBI are likely to keep policy rates unchanged but ease further in Q2 • We also expect BoK to keep policy rates on hold for now and act on future data movements • China’s inflation and credit growth could ease, allowing room for furthe...

  • Asia data previews – 13-20 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 13, 2015

    • We think BI will maintain an easing bias amid low inflation and global central bank easing • Singapore’s February NODX was likely affected by Lunar New Year data distortions • We expect a BoJ move in April not March ...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Feb – 6 Mar 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    • We expect the RBA and BNM to keep policy rates on hold; RBA may be a close call • Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines to release inflation data, with differing expectations • We see still-weak export growth in South Korea and Ma...

  • 06-Feb – Malaysia shows resilience - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – New GDP series likely to show slower economic activity in FY15 • Japan – Current account balance was likely positive in December 2014 • Taiwan – Trade surplus was likely boosted by a lower (oil) import bill • Marke...

  • 6-Jan – Greek election raises the stakes for ECB QE - Updated Mon January 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Sharp fall in oil price likely lifted total trade surplus • Malaysia – We expect export growth rebounded in November • Euro area – Falling oil prices could pull inflation negative • Market focus • Euro-area inflatio...

  • Asia data previews – 05-12 Dec - Updated Fri December 5, 2014

    • China is due to hold its Annual Central Economic Work Conference from 9-12 December • Central banks of Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and New Zealand are expected to keep rates on hold • We expect slower industrial production growth in China, Ind...

  • 04-Dec – We expect the BoK to cut rates in Q1-2015 - Updated Wed December 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Falling commodity prices likely affected export performance • Philippines – Inflation likely eased further in November • Taiwan – Inflationary risk likely eased on weak fuel prices • Market focus • Korea’s econo...

  • 05-Nov – Aussie labour-market uncertainty persists - Updated Tue November 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes in focus after its surprise easing • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep rates unchanged • Taiwan – Tech exports likely rose on year-end holiday sales demand • Market focus • The Australian Bureau of Stat...

  • Asia data previews – Week of 01-Nov - Updated Fri October 31, 2014

    China’s manufacturing PMI likely remained flat amid weak domestic demand; we expect a 25bps deposit rate cut in Q4 • We expect RBA, BoT and BNM to keep policy rates unchanged in the week ahead; BoJ minutes may show some concern on inflation target ...

  • Oil price effects on Asia, the US and Latam - Updated Fri October 24, 2014

    • We estimate the macro impact of a sustained change in oil prices • The impact will likely be affected by whether supply or demand dynamics drive the move more • Lower oil costs will likely result in reverse stagflation • Our central case is for...

  • 04-Sep – A hedge for ECB disappointment - Updated Wed September 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – July exports likely remained strong • Philippines – Inflationary pressures likely persisted in August • Taiwan – Local producers may pass on rising costs to consumers • Market focus • Expectations and short EUR p...

  • 14-Aug – China’s July stumble - Updated Wed August 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q2 • Taiwan – The government will likely raise its 2014 growth forecast • Hong Kong – Heeding the warning of a Q2 GDP disappointment • Market focus • IP growth moderated to 9....

  • 19-Jun – The Fed: And now back to the World Cup - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation may remain high on supply-side factors • Taiwan – Recovery in global demand likely supported orders data • Euro area – Consumer confidence should keep improving • Market focus • QE was tapered a furt...

  • Asia – Three counter-attacks - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    Asia’s leverage issues are confined to certain pockets and are not an across-the-board concern • Asia’s productivity performance has been solid across the board since 2000 • It is not an 'importless' recovery in the West – we expect external dem...

  • 06-May – Negative outlook on MYR and PHP bonds - Updated Mon May 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest export data may show a recovery in overseas demand • Malaysia – Export growth likely remained strong in March • Japan – BoJ minutes unlikely to surprise • Market focus • Indonesia, Malaysian, Philippines and...

  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...



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