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  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 03-Oct – Reiterating a bullish Asian FX call for Q4 - Updated Wed October 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Short-term inflationary pressures in September • Japan – BoJ likely to upgrade its assessment of the economy • Malaysia – Gradual improvement in export performance expected • Market focus • Higher-beta EM...

  • 02-Aug – US vs. China – Who matters more in Asia? - Updated Thu August 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Trade likely rebounded in June • Taiwan – A temporary downtrend in headline inflation • US – Job gains likely maintained their recent solid trend • Market focus • We examine Asia’s external linkages to the US...

  • 04-Jul – Macro resilience - Updated Wed July 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Ongoing weakness in external demand • Philippines – CPI inflation likely accelerated in June • Taiwan – Inflation slows due to delay in electricity-charge hikes • Market focus • Growth in Asia will likely remain...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...

  • 06-Jun – Friday’s payrolls may pacify the Fed - Updated Wed June 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Export growth is likely to show a modest improvement • Taiwan – Steady demand for tech continues to benefit local exporters • Germany – Export growth is not yet sufficient to lift industrial production • Marke...

  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...

  • Asia Focus - Transforming, rebalancing, outperforming - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    • The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...

  • 06-Dec-2012 – We expect a debt slope not a debt cliff - Updated Wed December 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government wins the vote on FDI in multi-brand retail • Malaysia – October likely to have seen a consolidation • Taiwan – Exports likely to have risen on year-end holiday demand • Market focus • The fiscal slope is...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 04-Oct-12 – INR – Fundamentals to lag new reforms - Updated Wed October 3, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Divergence between export and import growth continues • Philippines – Inflationary pressures ahead • Taiwan – Consumer price inflation likely stayed elevated in September • Market focus • Volley of new Indian pol...

  • The resurgence - Updated Mon September 24, 2012

    • Asia is still partly insulated from the West – in much of the region, domestic demand has grown more strongly than exports in 2012. However, Asia has been slowing in recent months. We expect growth to turn up in H1-2013, and we forecast better gro...

  • 18-Sep-12 – Not-so-great expectations - Updated Mon September 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation is likely to have remained below trend • Japan – Expect no change in the BoJ policy rate and asset purchases • UK – BoE’s MPC minutes to be scrutinised for insight about further QE • Market focus • Fed’...

  • 07-Sep-12 – Draghi promises ‘unlimited’ support - Updated Thu September 6, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Industrial weakness is likely to have continued • Japan – Economic data is likely to indicate fading growth momentum • Malaysia – Industrial production is expected to have moderated in July • Market focus • August’...

  • 06-Sep-12 – India: Too soon to buy - Updated Wed September 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports are not likely to see a turnaround as yet • Philippines – BSP likely to keep rates on hold after higher inflation • Taiwan – Exports may have stabilised due to a rebound in tech sales • Market focus • T...

  • 07-Aug-12 – China’s recovery still needs time - Updated Mon August 6, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Current account surplus is likely to narrow • Malaysia – We expect a marginal improvement in the trade balance • Germany – Production and export data probably moderated in June • Market focus • China’s growth indi...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.