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  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • 10-Feb – India: Softer inflation amid growth pains - Updated Sun February 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – December export growth likely remained robust • Japan – December machinery orders likely slightly dropped m/m • US – Another lacklustre payroll print; but tapering is set to continue • Market focus • India Jan...

  • 06-Feb – Draghi is likely to downplay deflation risks - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal remains bullish for duration in February • India – Advance GDP estimate likely to show below-potential growth • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in December • Market focus • We do not expe...

  • 09-Jan – Steady job gains, steady taper - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – November IIP likely to stay in negative territory • Philippines – Exports likely fell on a m/m basis in November • UK – Industrial production expected to maintain positive momentum • Market focus • Following robust...

  • 17-Dec – India – RBI to focus on managing inflation - Updated Mon December 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – November’s trade balance likely remained in deficit • Malaysia – Inflation may have increased very slightly in November • US – CPI likely tame; homebuilders’ confidence probably rose • Market focus • Uncomfortably ...

  • 11-Nov – BI and BoK to keep rates on hold - Updated Sun November 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed export growth • India – CPI inflation to stay elevated; IIP to improve temporarily • UK – Expectations on the downside ahead of new Inflation Report • Market focus • We expe...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 18-Sep – India: RBI to stay cautious - Updated Tue September 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – August imports likely offset export gains • New Zealand – Q2 growth was likely muted at 0.2% q/q • South Africa – SARB forecasts in focus • Market focus • Marginal tweaking of liquidity-tightening measures is possi...

  • 13-Sep – An overlooked AXJ appreciation story? - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Elevated base effect probably contained August WPI • Philippines – Remittance growth likely continued to support consumption • US – Cars likely drove retail sales; but confidence may have been hit • Market focus • P...

  • 12-Sep – Japan looks likely to hike the sales tax - Updated Wed September 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – July IIP likely to improve; August CPI print to remain elevated • Singapore – Sluggish auto sales likely dragged down July retail sales • Turkey – Monetary policy U-turn precipitates TRY’s slump • Market focus • We ...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • 14-Jun – Surprise BI rate hike - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance inflows likely rebounded after a weak March • Singapore – Export performance expected to have remained lacklustre • India – Wide trade deficit and weaker INR represent risks to our rate-cut call • M...

  • 13-Jun – Signals to watch for a turnaround in EM - Updated Wed June 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – May WPI likely to be marginally lower • Indonesia – BI measures to provide short-term market relief • United States – A still-elevated gap between confidence and hard data • Market focus • EM markets have sold off ...

  • 29-May – Crunch time for the INR - Updated Tue May 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Strong Q1 performance likely led by domestic growth • South Korea – IP likely showed a technical rebound in April • Euro area – Surveys likely to show improving sentiment • Market focus • We forecast India’s ...

  • 13-May – EM-21 reserve monitor: Bearish EUR, GBP - Updated Sun May 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI likely to keep rates unchanged at the May meeting • India – More good news on inflation • Germany – ZEW survey expected to reflect modest pickup in investor sentiment • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank rese...

  • 18-Mar – RBI to tread cautiously - Updated Sun March 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Further SDA rate cuts may come later rather than sooner • UK – February inflation may have eased, but pressure lingers • Euro area – German ZEW to take the shine off of a good run of data • Market focus • RB...

  • 11-Mar – AXJ capital inflows, but no FX rally - Updated Sun March 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic prices are expected to remain low for longer • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed January export growth • India – February trade deficit might provide cues for monetary policy • Market focus •...

  • 11-Jan-13 – Subsidy reforms, inflation and the RBI - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Short-term FX weighting lowered to Underweight • Ghana – Stunning 3Y bond auction results, 5Y offers better value • Euro area – ECB sees ‘positive contagion’ as markets do the job • Market focus • December WPI...



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31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to...

Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in inflation is likely to keep the RBI on hold on...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.