We expect lower oil prices to directly impact the GCC’s growth outlook
• Recent oil-price decline is a reminder that government expenditure cannot rise indefinitely
• Energy-subsidy reform should become a priority given reduced fiscal heardroom...
Lower oil prices should help to lift growth across most European countries
• We expect further ECB easing, and delayed BoE tightening
• Confidence in the region remains vulnerable to politics and geopolitics...
GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015
• Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility
• Drop in oil prices is a key...
• Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
• The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
• This supersedes the version dated 25 April 2013. Corrects India repo rate levels on pages 1, 2 and 8.
• The RBI looks set to cut the repo rate by 25bps
• No surprises expected from the FOMC meeting
• We expect the ECB to cut the refi rate by 2...
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