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  • Europe – Looking for a way out - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Lower oil prices should help to lift growth across most European countries • We expect further ECB easing, and delayed BoE tightening • Confidence in the region remains vulnerable to politics and geopolitics...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

  • MENA – Navigating headwinds - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    We expect lower oil prices to directly impact the GCC’s growth outlook • Recent oil-price decline is a reminder that government expenditure cannot rise indefinitely • Energy-subsidy reform should become a priority given reduced fiscal heardroom...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • Middle East and North Africa Focus – Adjusting to reality - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...



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