• We expect faster growth in most Asian economies in 2014
• Inflation pressure is manageable for now
• Export growth should pick up and boost current accounts
• Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are not as weak as they seem
• We still project the BI rate at 8.00% by end-2014, but adjust the timing of the next rate hikes to Q2 and Q3
• A further rally in IDR bonds will be tactical and limited; we maintai...
Top 3 data/events
• India – IIP to turn negative, CPI remains sticky
• Indonesia – We expect BI to hike rates at the December meeting
• South Korea – BoK is likely to keep its policy rate at 2.5%
• Market focus
• Cumulative upside data surpris...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
The Fed‟s decision to delay QE tapering, possibly until Q1-2014, has given Indonesian policy makers much needed breathing room. Indonesia‟s economic fundamentals are worse than they were 12 months ago. Without a sharp rebound in prices of commoditie...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
The change in composition of BI’s board of governors allows for a much more hawkish monetary policy
• We now expect BI to hike the BI rate to 7.00% and the FASBI rate to 5.25% by end-2013
• Stay Underweight IDR bonds; USD-IDR and IDR bond yields t...
• Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are deteriorating; the market perceives that country risk is rising
• We revise our BoP, GDP growth and government budget deficit forecasts
• We expect the IDR and IDR bonds to weaken further on inflation risks...
We believe that the government is unlikely to hike subsidised fuel prices in 2013
• We now expect BI to raise the FASBI rate, instead of the BI rate, by 50bps in H2-2013
• Stay Underweight FX and Neutral duration on IDR bonds; shift 5Y and 20Y hol...
• We expect the C/A deficit to shrink to USD 8bn in 2013 from USD 21.5bn in 2012 on higher exports
• We lower our short-term FX weighting on the IDR to Underweight; maintain medium-term Overweight
• Stay Neutral duration and shift to Underweight ...
Mild domestic inflation and QE3 to limit further hikes in FASBI rate to 25bps by end-2012
• Basic electricity tariffs are likely to be hiked by 15% next year, but we expect a limited impact on inflation
• We expect IDR to underperform within A...
• Asia is still partly insulated from the West – in much of the region, domestic demand has grown more strongly than exports in 2012. However, Asia has been slowing in recent months. We expect growth to turn up in H1-2013, and we forecast better gro...
• We cut our 2012 current account forecast to a USD 16bn deficit (1.8% of GDP) from a USD 2bn surplus
• We expect Bank Indonesia to raise the FASBI rate by another 75bps in H2-2012 to slow credit growth
• Maintain a Neutral cash and duration sta...
A 33% hike in subsidised fuel prices is still likely, possibly in H2-2012
• We revise our 2012 GDP growth forecast to 6.0% from 5.8%, while maintaining our 2013 forecast of 6.5%
• We maintain a Neutral duration stance on IDR bonds as inflation wor...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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