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  • Iron ore – Living with cash-tight consumers - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • Most iron ore buyers from China are cash-tight as banks withdraw financial support • We think more steel mills are likely to go bankrupt this year • We maintain a bearish view on iron ore prices in H2-2014 ...

  • Copper – An oversold market offers a chance to buy - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals • Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening • We maintain our full-year price foreca...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • 17-Feb – Ironing out our AUD view - Updated Sun February 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes likely to show comfort about the recovery • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain its pace of asset purchases • Turkey – CBRT expected to stay on hold • Market focus • We have cut our iron ore forecasts on ...

  • Iron ore – Slower China, faster Australia - Updated Fri February 14, 2014

    China’s iron ore inventories approach record high levels on strong imports and soft domestic demand • Iron ore consumers are trapped by a lack of confidence on macro outlook and tight cash flow • We lower our Q1 price forecast; we expect a downtre...

  • Metals – Darkness on the edge of town - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals • We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat • Our preferred positive exposures are t...

  • A delicate balance - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    • Our theme for 2014 centres on the balance between headwinds – such as a stronger US dollar (USD), higher US yields and larger supply surpluses – and tailwinds in the form of an improving global economic outlook and a continuing super-cycle. Broad ...

  • LME Week 2013 - Updated Fri October 4, 2013

    • China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer • Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness • LME warehousing – We expect continued ...

  • Signs are pointing up - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue. • Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...

  • 21-Aug – Brazil: Life is not a beach anymore - Updated Tue August 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Iron ore – Price rally faces an immediate challenge • Euro area – Positive PMIs expected to continue in August • US – Don’t hold your breath for the Jackson Hole conference • Market focus • We met with clients in Brazil; t...

  • Iron ore – Price rally faces immediate challenge - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Previously balanced iron ore market has been upset by stronger-than-expected demand from China • Inventory held by consumers and traders remains low, and restocking is unlikely at current price level • We revise up our Q3 price forecast, keep Q4 f...

  • Copper – Getting used to a slower China - Updated Fri August 2, 2013

    Copper consumers in China maintain low-inventory strategy on bearish price outlook and tight credit • Recent macro policy changes aimed at supporting growth have not boosted consumers’ confidence • We maintain 5% growth forecast for China’s 2013 ...

  • Base metals – Bazooka or Chinese medicine? - Updated Mon July 8, 2013

    • The LME proposes rule to shorten queues at warehouses; this is likely to affect aluminium, copper, zinc • Chinese players are cautious about final approval and the likely effects • We expect aluminium and zinc forward curves to turn sharper if t...

  • Embracing divergence - Updated Tue June 11, 2013

    • We expect modest price gains in most commodities in H2, before a stronger upward move next year. • Commodity and equity markets have diverged since Q3-2011; such divergence has historically lasted for 18-24 months. • Improving corporate profits,...

  • Copper – Financing deals face regulatory challenge - Updated Mon May 27, 2013

    China has issued a regulation to tighten supervision on commodities used in financing • The regulation is likely to reduce leverage and encourage the unwinding of financing deals • 3M LME copper faces downside risks in the near term, but the impa...

  • Iron ore – The bears are in the driver’s seat - Updated Tue May 21, 2013

    The price downtrend has started earlier than we expected; we lower our 2013 and 2014 price forecasts • Caution is spreading across the physical and paper markets, with demand about to turn weaker • Supply has improved, and consumers and traders ex...

  • China steel – Keep on keeping on - Updated Thu May 2, 2013

    • China’s steel mills have maintained high utilisation rates despite poor margins • Aggressive steel output has limited inventory downside, although steel demand has improved • We caution against being bearish on iron ore in May, but expect decli...

  • Aluminium – We see upside risks from here - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Aluminium is tracking copper for now, but downside is far more limited • China is suffering from a strong currency and excess local production • Market view: We see some upside for the short term on technical signals...

  • Corn – Upside price risks remain - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Corn prices have declined on bearish market news • Corn use will increase in the long term as feed demand grows • Market needs to price in weather risk as US planting starts...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.