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  • Signs of improvement in China’s demand - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    A strong surge in China’s crude oil imports has helped to tighten global balances • Metals trade data points to modest improvement in China demand growth rates in April versus Q1 • China’s y/y oil demand growth has stayed above 8% for a second mon...

  • Iron ore – Hitting the ceiling - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Production declines led to a strong iron ore price rebound in Q1; this is not sustainable, in our view • Spare capacity implies potential to respond to higher prices and push the market into a surplus again • We expect prices to trend down in Q3 a...

  • Silk Road: Uneven commodity demand trends - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust • Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1 • China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...

  • Aluminium – Evolving surplus in China - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    China’s aluminium production will likely remain strong in 2015 on aggressive capacity expansions • Improving smelting profitability owing to substantially lower power costs...

  • Commodity Roadmap – US oil industry recession deepens - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years • China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums • US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    Focus: Collapse in scrap imports is a clear positive for China’s primary copper cathode demand • We think a base is being laid for a more sustained oil price rally in Q2 and Q3 • Increasing pressure on domestic NPI producers likely to boost China’...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    • OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015 • The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February • Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...

  • Commodity roadmap - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    • Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters • Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March • Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 23, 2015

    Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view • China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1 • Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios • Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015 • Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...

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