China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust
• Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1
• China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...
China’s aluminium production will likely remain strong in 2015 on aggressive capacity expansions
• Improving smelting profitability owing to substantially lower power costs...
Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years
• China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums
• US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...
Focus: Collapse in scrap imports is a clear positive for China’s primary copper cathode demand
• We think a base is being laid for a more sustained oil price rally in Q2 and Q3
• Increasing pressure on domestic NPI producers likely to boost China’...
• OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015
• The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February
• Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...
• Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters
• Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March
• Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...
Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view
• China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1
• Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...
Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios
• Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015
• Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...
Sluggish China demand has outweighed mounting supply constraints in driving price action so far in 2015
• The turn lower in aluminium physical premia should generate medium-term support for LME prices
• The copper concentrate market deficit has st...
• You are cordially invited to join us for an update call at 09:00 GMT on Thursday 12 March (with Q&A) with:
• Judy Zhu, Commodities Research
• Spence Pitts, Iron ore trader, Hong Kong
• Topics include:
• Our regular Commodities Update calls...
Focus: Softness in the zinc physical market points to continued near-term relative underperformance
• China’s preliminary trade data shows falls in copper imports and aluminium product exports
• Key monthly oil reports are due in the next week; we...
• New global iron ore supply will likely fall by half in 2015; reduced capex to limit medium-term supply
• China’s iron ore demand and imports will likely grow more slowly than in 2014 but should stay high
• We lower our 2015 iron ore price fore...
We expect China’s monetary and fiscal policy to become more expansive as growth moderates
• Latest trade data indicate a slight moderation in China’s metal demand growth rates
• Coal imports fall sharply as new regulations on quality come into fo...
• Focus: Drilling in the Bakken shale has fallen by 42% in three months; output is likely to fall in April
• China’s metal demand growth moderated but did not collapse in January
• Oil prices have continued their rebound, but are still low enough ...
• Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015
• Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April
• ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...
Most of the commodity companies we surveyed have a neutral view on commodity prices in 2015
• Companies’ focus will be on cash-flow management, to offset the challenges they foresee
• We expect Chinese investor activity in financial markets to be ...
• Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2
• Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted
• Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...
• Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year
• A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output
• US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...
• Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low
• Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures
• Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...
• Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue
• Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure
• Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...
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