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  • Silk Road: Uneven commodity demand trends - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust • Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1 • China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...

  • Aluminium – Evolving surplus in China - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    China’s aluminium production will likely remain strong in 2015 on aggressive capacity expansions • Improving smelting profitability owing to substantially lower power costs...

  • Commodity Roadmap – US oil industry recession deepens - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years • China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums • US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    Focus: Collapse in scrap imports is a clear positive for China’s primary copper cathode demand • We think a base is being laid for a more sustained oil price rally in Q2 and Q3 • Increasing pressure on domestic NPI producers likely to boost China’...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    • OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015 • The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February • Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...

  • Commodity roadmap - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    • Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters • Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March • Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 23, 2015

    Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view • China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1 • Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios • Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015 • Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...

  • Metals Standard – Waiting for China - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Sluggish China demand has outweighed mounting supply constraints in driving price action so far in 2015 • The turn lower in aluminium physical premia should generate medium-term support for LME prices • The copper concentrate market deficit has st...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    Focus: Softness in the zinc physical market points to continued near-term relative underperformance • China’s preliminary trade data shows falls in copper imports and aluminium product exports • Key monthly oil reports are due in the next week; we...

  • Iron ore – Supply to realign with demand - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • New global iron ore supply will likely fall by half in 2015; reduced capex to limit medium-term supply • China’s iron ore demand and imports will likely grow more slowly than in 2014 but should stay high • We lower our 2015 iron ore price fore...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    We expect China’s monetary and fiscal policy to become more expansive as growth moderates • Latest trade data indicate a slight moderation in China’s metal demand growth rates • Coal imports fall sharply as new regulations on quality come into fo...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    • Focus: Drilling in the Bakken shale has fallen by 42% in three months; output is likely to fall in April • China’s metal demand growth moderated but did not collapse in January • Oil prices have continued their rebound, but are still low enough ...

  • Commodity Investor Flows - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    • Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015 • Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April • ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...

  • Commodity trip notes – Caution over China - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    Most of the commodity companies we surveyed have a neutral view on commodity prices in 2015 • Companies’ focus will be on cash-flow management, to offset the challenges they foresee • We expect Chinese investor activity in financial markets to be ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 16, 2015

    • Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2 • Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted • Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year • A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output • US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low • Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures • Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    • Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue • Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure • Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...



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