A strong surge in China’s crude oil imports has helped to tighten global balances
• Metals trade data points to modest improvement in China demand growth rates in April versus Q1
• China’s y/y oil demand growth has stayed above 8% for a second mon...
Production declines led to a strong iron ore price rebound in Q1; this is not sustainable, in our view
• Spare capacity implies potential to respond to higher prices and push the market into a surplus again
• We expect prices to trend down in Q3 a...
China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust
• Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1
• China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...
China’s aluminium production will likely remain strong in 2015 on aggressive capacity expansions
• Improving smelting profitability owing to substantially lower power costs...
Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years
• China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums
• US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...
Focus: Collapse in scrap imports is a clear positive for China’s primary copper cathode demand
• We think a base is being laid for a more sustained oil price rally in Q2 and Q3
• Increasing pressure on domestic NPI producers likely to boost China’...
• OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015
• The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February
• Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...
• Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters
• Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March
• Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...
Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view
• China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1
• Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...
Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios
• Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015
• Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...
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