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  • Commodity roadmap - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    • Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters • Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March • Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 23, 2015

    Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view • China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1 • Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios • Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015 • Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...

  • Metals Standard – Waiting for China - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Sluggish China demand has outweighed mounting supply constraints in driving price action so far in 2015 • The turn lower in aluminium physical premia should generate medium-term support for LME prices • The copper concentrate market deficit has st...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    Focus: Softness in the zinc physical market points to continued near-term relative underperformance • China’s preliminary trade data shows falls in copper imports and aluminium product exports • Key monthly oil reports are due in the next week; we...

  • Iron ore – Supply to realign with demand - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • New global iron ore supply will likely fall by half in 2015; reduced capex to limit medium-term supply • China’s iron ore demand and imports will likely grow more slowly than in 2014 but should stay high • We lower our 2015 iron ore price fore...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    We expect China’s monetary and fiscal policy to become more expansive as growth moderates • Latest trade data indicate a slight moderation in China’s metal demand growth rates • Coal imports fall sharply as new regulations on quality come into fo...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    • Focus: Drilling in the Bakken shale has fallen by 42% in three months; output is likely to fall in April • China’s metal demand growth moderated but did not collapse in January • Oil prices have continued their rebound, but are still low enough ...

  • Commodity Investor Flows - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    • Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015 • Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April • ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...

  • Commodity trip notes – Caution over China - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    Most of the commodity companies we surveyed have a neutral view on commodity prices in 2015 • Companies’ focus will be on cash-flow management, to offset the challenges they foresee • We expect Chinese investor activity in financial markets to be ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 16, 2015

    • Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2 • Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted • Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year • A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output • US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low • Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures • Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    • Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue • Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure • Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Copper, oil and aluminium imports ended the year strongly; the effect of GDP slowing proved uneven • Crude oil imports surged in December, buoyed by bargain hunting and strategic stockpiling • China’s apparent demand for refined copper and alumin...

  • Metals Standard – The return of volatility - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    • Short-term demand pessimism remains the prevalent theme as China quietens ahead of the Lunar New Year • Mounting supply-rationing pressures and investor positioning extremes point to a price rebound by Q2-2015 • Copper prices are still far too l...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 19, 2015

    • Focus: Copper-price overshoot presents an opportunity for investors to position in Q1 for 2015 • Non-OPEC output potential is falling away sharply as oil-price undershoot continues • The SNB’s surprise removal of the CHF ceiling further supports...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    Focus: US oil production is likely to decline m/m before the end of Q2-2015 • Demand signals, potential output cuts and investor positioning are key for base metals • Too early to call a bottom in oil prices yet, even as damage to the supply side ...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Tue December 23, 2014

    • China’s economic slowdown continues; only oil and copper demand remains robust • Oil demand continues to grow; strategic stockpiling will likely lead to more crude oil imports in 2015 • Copper demand reached a record high in November, supporte...



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