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  • LME Week 2013 - Updated Fri October 4, 2013

    • China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer • Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness • LME warehousing – We expect continued ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • 20-Sep – Risk on! - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Higher transport inflation risks in the coming months • Gold – Prices surge as the Fed delays QE tapering • Euro area – PMIs to reinforce that sentiment is still in recovery mode • Market focus • We think the EM...

  • Signs are pointing up - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue. • Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...

  • Gold – India’s government gets tough - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    • India has announced a slew of measures to curb gold imports, including an import duty hike to 10% • August imports dropped sharply to less than 5t, but there is plenty of potential for recovery • Gold prices should rally from here, but we see l...

  • Metals – China gloom looks overdone - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    Gold – Price finds strong support around USD 1,270/oz and looks set to test higher levels • Gold – A supply crunch is coming, although headwinds from the Fed may dampen any rallies • Copper – Prices break out of symmetrical triangle – we see the p...

  • Aluminium – New news and old news - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    • LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly • The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike • China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Metals – Precious metal markets lead the way down [CORRECTION] - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 16 July 2013. Page 5, Figure 5 is previous forecasts table. • Gold – Price tumbles and then rebounds as markets react to hopes and fears about US QE • Gold – Short-term risks are to the downside, but spike in leas...

  • Gold – Searching for a floor, as lease rates spike - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    Lease rates spike to multi-year highs – we see this as a bullish signal • Investors are selling ETFs aggressively, with little sign of improvement from US speculative positions • Spot prices still under pressure from expected withdrawal of QE by F...

  • 27-Jun – Gold prices tumble as investors liquidate - Updated Wed June 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Economic data to show an uneven pace of recovery • South Korea – Industrial production likely posted a mild gain in May • US – Personal spending may fine-tune Q2 GDP expectations • Market focus • Investor selling o...

  • Embracing divergence - Updated Tue June 11, 2013

    • We expect modest price gains in most commodities in H2, before a stronger upward move next year. • Commodity and equity markets have diverged since Q3-2011; such divergence has historically lasted for 18-24 months. • Improving corporate profits,...

  • 27-May – Is the ‘Abe trade’ running out of steam? - Updated Sun May 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Renminbi clearing services begin onshore • Australia – Weaker consumer sentiment makes a further cut more likely • Commodities − Gold struggles for direction; investor selling continues • Market focus • Declines...

  • Metals – Supply concerns drive price performance - Updated Fri May 24, 2013

    Gold – ETF selling has overwhelmed strong physical demand and pension funds are cutting • Platinum/palladium – Prices start to find their own path due to problems in South Africa • Copper – Supply risks are significant due to problems in Indonesi...

  • 17-May – UST track data not debt ceiling - Updated Thu May 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders are expected to show steady tech demand • Thailand – Q1 GDP result will likely play a role in policy rate decision • Gold tests lower levels as investor selling overwhelms physical demand • Market focu...

  • Platinum – The missing element - Updated Thu May 16, 2013

    • South Africa – No easy solutions to margin squeeze, and upcoming wage negotiations will be tough • Demand – Platinum Week conversations highlight continued weakness in the industrial sector • Investors – Appetite for newly launched physical ETF ...

  • Gold – Milestones on the road to recovery - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    • Physical gold – Interest surges across the world for coins and bars • Investors – Physical ETFs are still dropping; US managed money positions are bottoming • Central banks – The second half of May is key to watch; early signs are positive • We...

  • Metals – Precious metal markets tumble - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    • Gold – Prices break key support and then tumble; bargain-hunting sees Asian buying surge • Silver – Leads the way lower as investors liquidate, but ETFs are stable for now • Platinum/palladium – Prices hit by precious metal sell-off and now repr...

  • Aluminium – We see upside risks from here - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Aluminium is tracking copper for now, but downside is far more limited • China is suffering from a strong currency and excess local production • Market view: We see some upside for the short term on technical signals...

  • Corn – Upside price risks remain - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Corn prices have declined on bearish market news • Corn use will increase in the long term as feed demand grows • Market needs to price in weather risk as US planting starts...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.