• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Higher transport inflation risks in the coming months
• Gold – Prices surge as the Fed delays QE tapering
• Euro area – PMIs to reinforce that sentiment is still in recovery mode
• Market focus
• We think the EM...
Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue.
• Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...
• India has announced a slew of measures to curb gold imports, including an import duty hike to 10%
• August imports dropped sharply to less than 5t, but there is plenty of potential for recovery
• Gold prices should rally from here, but we see l...
Gold – Price finds strong support around USD 1,270/oz and looks set to test higher levels
• Gold – A supply crunch is coming, although headwinds from the Fed may dampen any rallies
• Copper – Prices break out of symmetrical triangle – we see the p...
• LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly
• The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike
• China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...
Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...
This supersedes the version dated 16 July 2013. Page 5, Figure 5 is previous forecasts table.
• Gold – Price tumbles and then rebounds as markets react to hopes and fears about US QE
• Gold – Short-term risks are to the downside, but spike in leas...
Lease rates spike to multi-year highs – we see this as a bullish signal
• Investors are selling ETFs aggressively, with little sign of improvement from US speculative positions
• Spot prices still under pressure from expected withdrawal of QE by F...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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