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  • LME Week 2013 - Updated Fri October 4, 2013

    • China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer • Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness • LME warehousing – We expect continued ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • 20-Sep – Risk on! - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Higher transport inflation risks in the coming months • Gold – Prices surge as the Fed delays QE tapering • Euro area – PMIs to reinforce that sentiment is still in recovery mode • Market focus • We think the EM...

  • Signs are pointing up - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue. • Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...

  • Gold – India’s government gets tough - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    • India has announced a slew of measures to curb gold imports, including an import duty hike to 10% • August imports dropped sharply to less than 5t, but there is plenty of potential for recovery • Gold prices should rally from here, but we see l...

  • Metals – China gloom looks overdone - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    Gold – Price finds strong support around USD 1,270/oz and looks set to test higher levels • Gold – A supply crunch is coming, although headwinds from the Fed may dampen any rallies • Copper – Prices break out of symmetrical triangle – we see the p...

  • Aluminium – New news and old news - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    • LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly • The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike • China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Metals – Precious metal markets lead the way down [CORRECTION] - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 16 July 2013. Page 5, Figure 5 is previous forecasts table. • Gold – Price tumbles and then rebounds as markets react to hopes and fears about US QE • Gold – Short-term risks are to the downside, but spike in leas...

  • Gold – Searching for a floor, as lease rates spike - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    Lease rates spike to multi-year highs – we see this as a bullish signal • Investors are selling ETFs aggressively, with little sign of improvement from US speculative positions • Spot prices still under pressure from expected withdrawal of QE by F...

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