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  • LME Week 2013 - Updated Fri October 4, 2013

    • China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer • Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness • LME warehousing – We expect continued ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • 20-Sep – Risk on! - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Higher transport inflation risks in the coming months • Gold – Prices surge as the Fed delays QE tapering • Euro area – PMIs to reinforce that sentiment is still in recovery mode • Market focus • We think the EM...

  • Signs are pointing up - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue. • Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...

  • Gold – India’s government gets tough - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    • India has announced a slew of measures to curb gold imports, including an import duty hike to 10% • August imports dropped sharply to less than 5t, but there is plenty of potential for recovery • Gold prices should rally from here, but we see l...

  • Metals – China gloom looks overdone - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    Gold – Price finds strong support around USD 1,270/oz and looks set to test higher levels • Gold – A supply crunch is coming, although headwinds from the Fed may dampen any rallies • Copper – Prices break out of symmetrical triangle – we see the p...

  • Aluminium – New news and old news - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    • LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly • The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike • China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Metals – Precious metal markets lead the way down [CORRECTION] - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 16 July 2013. Page 5, Figure 5 is previous forecasts table. • Gold – Price tumbles and then rebounds as markets react to hopes and fears about US QE • Gold – Short-term risks are to the downside, but spike in leas...

  • Gold – Searching for a floor, as lease rates spike - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    Lease rates spike to multi-year highs – we see this as a bullish signal • Investors are selling ETFs aggressively, with little sign of improvement from US speculative positions • Spot prices still under pressure from expected withdrawal of QE by F...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.