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  • 14-Feb – USD strength to be delayed but not reversed - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumption and investment likely boosted Q4-2013 GDP • Singapore – Exports may remain positive despite potential distortion • Thailand – Political unrest likely took its toll on Q4-2013 GDP • Market focus • The US...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 30-Jan – A 10bn tapering goodbye - Updated Wed January 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Trade was likely slower and inflation benign in January • Thailand – Political unrest likely to hit the current account • Euro area – Downward inflationary pressure tests ECB tolerance • Market focus • The ...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 15-Nov – EM-21 central banks ‘self-insure’ - Updated Thu November 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economy likely recovered from a technical recession • Singapore – NODX to contract at a slower pace • India – New inflows but also new INR volatility • Market focus • EM-21 reserves increased in September, Octo...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...

  • 30-Oct – Fed tapering: See you again, but next year - Updated Tue October 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic conditions likely improved in September • Japan – Markets will watch the BoJ’s semi-annual economic review • Mexico – We take profit on our 5Y TIIE receiver • Market focus • The Fed is expected to k...

  • What Thai clients think - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Local optimism about Thailand’s growth prospects has rebounded to early-2011 levels • Optimism about growth in the Mekong delta region is particularly strong • Europe dropped off the ‘areas of concern’ list, to be replaced by US and local concerns...

  • 15-Oct – United States: Ready to base jump - Updated Mon October 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT likely to keep the policy rate on hold • Asia – Rates outlook • UK – Unemployment rate likely to have remained at 7.7% Market focus • Market pressures and polls pushed Republicans to cave in last Thursday • ...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 27-Sep – Euro-area policy, politics and economics - Updated Thu September 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Modest current account deficit expected for August • Vietnam – Revision of USD-VND FX Forecasts • South Korea – Industrial production likely rebounded in August • Market focus • Unpredictable politics in Austria...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • 16-Aug – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu August 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Rolling the short leg of our USD-TWD 1Mx6M spread trade • Thailand – Growth likely moderated further in Q2 • US – Housing likely remained resilient despite higher mortgage rates • Market focus • In July, EM-2...

  • 18-Jul – No news is good news - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT likely to cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast • Japan – Weekly investor flows data will be watched closely • Canada – A small step towards more pronounced ‘forward guidance’ • Market focus • Fed QE tapering re...

  • 09-Jul – Dancing in September - Updated Mon July 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Export growth likely remained subdued in June • Philippines – Another month of negative export growth looks likely • Thailand – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold • Market focus • We now expect QE tapering to s...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.