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  • 30-Mar – Euro area is gaining momentum - Updated Sun March 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely dropped during the Lunar New Year holiday • Thailand – Rising tourism income may have boosted C/A surplus • US – Soft core PCE inflation to keep September hike on track • Market focus • The euro area ...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...

  • 04-Nov – All-powerful ECB likely to act with restraint - Updated Mon November 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • US – Republicans set to gain a small Senate majority after midterms • Thailand – The MPC is likely to keep the policy rate at 2.0% • Taiwan – Headline inflation likely capped by falling transport costs • Market focus • As...

  • 27-Oct – Turning off the US QE tap, and watching - Updated Sun October 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Retail sales likely increased moderately in September • Thailand – Trade and C/A surpluses expected for September • Vietnam – Economic data likely to show mild improvement in October • Market focus • We think the ...

  • 15-Aug – Dollar divergence - Updated Thu August 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic activity likely picked up in Q2 • Singapore – NODX likely contracted in July, although less than in June • US – A busy summer for factories, but a calmer autumn is coming • Market focus • We expect cont...

  • 05-Aug – BoT to hold; bond flows to stay positive - Updated Mon August 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – The unemployment rate likely dropped to a five-year low • Australia – Jobless rate likely rose to 6.1%, participation to 64.8% • United States – ISMs may not align • Market focus • We expect the BoT to keep i...

  • 25-Jul – Lowering our US GDP but not yield forecast - Updated Thu July 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Export recovery likely gained momentum in June • Vietnam – July data likely improved, but not significantly • Turkey – Tightening the stop on short 6M USD-TRY • Market focus • We have lowered our 2014 US ...

  • 17-Jul – Thailand on a better trajectory - Updated Wed July 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Turkey – CBRT expected to cut, reluctantly • Euro area – CPI likely stayed at 0.5% • US – Housing starts likely dropped for a second consecutive month • Market focus • Economic sentiment has improved following the military ...

  • 27-Jun – US growth: A big bite into expectations - Updated Thu June 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – May industrial production likely rebounded m/m • South Korea – Trade to bounce back, CPI remains benign • Thailand – June inflation is likely to be stable • Market focus • The sharp downward revision to US Q1 GD...

  • The Morning Call 17-Jun – Oil spillover in Asia - Updated Mon June 16, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Japan – May exports likely slowed; BoJ minutes unlikely to surprise • Thailand – BoT’s easing cycle is likely over • US – Housing starts likely edged lower; CPI may have continued rising • Market focus • Growth impact...

  • 30-Apr – QE tapering firmly on auto pilot - Updated Tue April 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Weak manufacturing recovery continues • South Korea – New product lines boost exports • Thailand – Inflation is on the rise • Market focus • FOMC set to taper by USD 10bn; statement unlikely to bring material new ...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...

  • 30-Oct – Fed tapering: See you again, but next year - Updated Tue October 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic conditions likely improved in September • Japan – Markets will watch the BoJ’s semi-annual economic review • Mexico – We take profit on our 5Y TIIE receiver • Market focus • The Fed is expected to k...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • 16-Aug – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu August 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Rolling the short leg of our USD-TWD 1Mx6M spread trade • Thailand – Growth likely moderated further in Q2 • US – Housing likely remained resilient despite higher mortgage rates • Market focus • In July, EM-2...



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