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  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...

  • 30-Oct – Fed tapering: See you again, but next year - Updated Tue October 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic conditions likely improved in September • Japan – Markets will watch the BoJ’s semi-annual economic review • Mexico – We take profit on our 5Y TIIE receiver • Market focus • The Fed is expected to k...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • 16-Aug – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu August 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Rolling the short leg of our USD-TWD 1Mx6M spread trade • Thailand – Growth likely moderated further in Q2 • US – Housing likely remained resilient despite higher mortgage rates • Market focus • In July, EM-2...

  • 18-Jul – No news is good news - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT likely to cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast • Japan – Weekly investor flows data will be watched closely • Canada – A small step towards more pronounced ‘forward guidance’ • Market focus • Fed QE tapering re...

  • 28-May – BoT to cut; keep THB IRS steepener - Updated Mon May 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumer sector is on the path to recovery • Brazil – BCB likely to hike the SELIC rate • Germany – May’s unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 6.9% • Market focus • We expect the BoT to cut rates by 25bps to...

  • 02-Apr – Thailand might cut its policy rate - Updated Mon April 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation likely eased due to high base effects • Singapore – PMI data likely remained subdued in March • US – Services sector probably maintained momentum in March • Market focus • In March, Thai core in...

  • 18-Feb-13 – BoT rate cut to support recovery - Updated Sun February 17, 2013

    Top 2 data/events • Euro area – German ZEW survey may disappoint • Mexico – Steady growth, stable monetary conditions • Market focus • Downside risks to growth to weigh on the BoT’s decision on 20 February • We expect the BoT to cut its polic...

  • 27-Nov-12 – Brazil’s COPOM: the last will be the first - Updated Mon November 26, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth should provide evidence of domestic resilience • Thailand – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold for now • US – Headline durable goods orders likely to edge lower, core not much better • Market fo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 01-Oct-12 – Inflation momentum in Asia - Updated Sun September 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – A close call; we marginally favour a rate cut • Vietnam – Moody’s cuts Vietnam’s rating to B2; outlook stable • United States – ISM manufacturing to remain tepid • Market focus • Asia’s inflation is likely to ...

  • 28-Aug-12 – Stay long Asian local-currency bonds - Updated Mon August 27, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Manufacturing output likely to have dropped further • US – Conference Board confidence is expected to have edged up • Brazil – BCB to cut rates once again this week • Market focus • We are bullish on Asian bonds ...

  • 17-Aug-12 – The new normal – EM central banks dominate price action - Updated Thu August 16, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Tech export orders to recover • Thailand – GDP to be driven by investment • United States – Consumer consolidation • Market focus • Non-USD G10 currencies have outperformed AXJ currencies, despite valuations • T...

  • 26-Jun-12 – Asia production watch - Updated Mon June 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Mild drop expected in leading indicators index • Thailand – Improvement in MPI, but still below pre-flood levels • US – Consumers wobble • Market focus • The overall tone of production in Asia is likely to remain ...

  • 12-June-12 – Spectre of 17 June casts its shadow - Updated Mon June 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold • Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps • United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012 • Market focus • The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.