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  • 15-Nov – EM-21 central banks ‘self-insure’ - Updated Thu November 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economy likely recovered from a technical recession • Singapore – NODX to contract at a slower pace • India – New inflows but also new INR volatility • Market focus • EM-21 reserves increased in September, Octo...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • 08-Jan-13 – The pulse of Asia - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT will probably keep policy rates on hold • Malaysia – Rebound in trade activity is likely • Asia – Robust inflows into selected bond markets; stay long INR bonds • Market focus • The Asia macro picture sugges...

  • 29-Nov-2012 – Increasing allocations to Asian bonds - Updated Wed November 28, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Q2-FY13 GDP to reflect further slowdown • South Korea – Continued improvement in industrial production • Thailand – October data to highlight downside risks to growth • Market focus • Real money funds remain Overwei...

  • 15-Jun-12 – All eyes on the Greek election - Updated Thu June 14, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Monthly trade deficit looks likely • Saudi Arabia – Well placed despite the recent oil-price drop • India – We expect the RBI to reduce the repo rate by 25bps • Market focus • Greece’s 17 June election result c...

  • 10-May-12 – Sell in May… - Updated Wed May 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – March IIP likely slowed significantly • Malaysia – Central bank to keep rates on hold • Thailand – BoT will likely raise its 2012 GDP growth forecast Market focus • Asian currencies are correcting and have further t...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.