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  • 09-Apr – A pause for breath or a policy inflection? - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in February • China – We think inflation moderated after the Lunar New Year • China – Credit growth likely slid again in March • Market focus • USD strength in Q1 was almost in ...

  • 02-Apr – India – A pause before easing - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain cash rate at 2.25% in a close call • Malaysia – We expect lacklustre export growth for February • Philippines – Inflation likely eased in March • Market focus • RBI likely to keep repo rat...

  • 01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 ...

  • 17-Mar – Further SSA currency weakness likely - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade data likely disappointed in February • Malaysia – We expect inflation to have slowed further in February • UK – We expect unanimous MPC and robust labour-market data • Market focus • USD-NGN is likely to adjus...

  • Malaysia – A pause means a lot - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    We present takeaways from BNM’s annual report briefing and our meetings with local investors • We think a policy rate move is unlikely in the near term, although we do not rule it out completely • Positive onshore sentiment towards the rates mark...

  • Singapore – We expect another MAS move in April - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    We expect the MAS to follow up on January’s surprise easing by re-centring the band 2% lower • We examine what we think are the six most plausible MAS decision scenarios • FX: Maintain Underweight FX weighting on the SGD; remain short SGD-THB v...

  • 05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% ...

  • 04-Mar – BNM policy stance supports receiving rates - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely contracted in October • UK – Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged • Euro area – ECB will likely revise growth up and inflation down • Market focus • BNM is l...

  • 10-Feb – BSP is in no rush to change policy stance - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect Q4 GDP to have slowed versus previous quarters • Singapore – Take profit on pay 2Y IRS vs 2Y SGS • Australia – We expect muted job creation for January • Market focus • We expect the BSP to keep its pol...

  • 09-Feb – Euro area is turning the corner - Updated Sun February 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Deflationary pressure justifies a looser policy stance • Philippines – Export growth likely remained robust in December • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed further in December 2014 • Market focus • Th...



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09-Apr – A pause for breath or a policy...

Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in February • China – We think inflation moderated after the Lunar New Year • China – Credit growth likely slid again in March • Market focus • USD strength in Q1 was almost in spite of US data rather than because of...

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