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  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting ...

  • Asia – 2014: A milestone year - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    • We expect faster growth in most Asian economies in 2014 • Inflation pressure is manageable for now • Export growth should pick up and boost current accounts ...

  • 03-Apr – Indonesia continues to outperform EMs - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely rose sharply on a y/y basis in February • Philippines – Inflation likely remained on an uptrend • Germany – February factory orders expected to have risen, but only just • Market focus • Indonesia ...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • 14-Mar – Asian fixed income outperforms CEMEA’s - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – February exports likely benefited from a low base • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained buoyant in January • China – Growth moderated, but official data complicates the reading • Market focus • Indon...

  • 12-Mar – Fine-tuning our G10 FX forecasts - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth likely moderated due to seasonal effects • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged in March • Malaysia – External tailwinds likely supported IP growth in January • Market focus • We are adjusting sele...

  • 11-Mar – A tale of two non-consensus calls - Updated Mon March 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – CPI to provide more reasons to cheer; IIP to disappoint • South Africa – Q4 current account deficit likely to have narrowed • Euro area – German, French and Italian data suggest upside to Jan IP • Market focus •...

  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • 05-Mar – Keeping the faith at the ECB - Updated Tue March 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We look for ongoing strength in retail sales and international trade • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep rates steady • US – Watch ADP and ISM service PMI for hints on Friday’s NFP report • Market focus • We exp...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • Singapore – Two-pronged budget maintained - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    The government maintains its focus on economic and social restructuring • The search for productivity continues, with productivity measures fine-tuned to focus more on SMEs • A strong focus on the elderly generation with the Pioneer Generation Pa...

  • 21-Feb – China FX reform ahead of G20 - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation probably remained benign in January • Taiwan – IP growth likely dipped in January due to the seasonal effect • Germany – IFO expectations to gauge corporate sentiment • Market focus • Chinese authoriti...

  • Singapore – Net exports boost final Q4 GDP - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Final Q4-2013 revised higher to 5.5% y/y from the advance 4.4% print; full-year 2013 growth is 4.1% • External demand provides the pick-up as domestic activity slows • We expect 2014 growth at 4.4%; this is slightly more optimistic than the govern...

  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • 14-Feb – USD strength to be delayed but not reversed - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumption and investment likely boosted Q4-2013 GDP • Singapore – Exports may remain positive despite potential distortion • Thailand – Political unrest likely took its toll on Q4-2013 GDP • Market focus • The US...



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16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.