• We think BI will maintain an easing bias amid low inflation and global central bank easing
• Singapore’s February NODX was likely affected by Lunar New Year data distortions
• We expect a BoJ move in April not March
• The Philippines emerges as the best performer in Asia in Q4-2014
• Thailand’s growth tracker signals a pick-up in GDP from very soft levels; Indonesia’s GDP remains soft
• Current account trackers are stronger than before
• China is due to hold its Annual Central Economic Work Conference from 9-12 December
• Central banks of Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and New Zealand are expected to keep rates on hold
• We expect slower industrial production growth in China, Ind...
The outlook is bright for ASEAN’s highly diverse and fast-growing economies
• ASEAN’s GDP growth outpaced global growth by 2ppt between 1980-2013
• The region has been the world’s fastest-growing since the 1980s; many of its economies have room ...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
Growth is improving, but at a very gradual pace. Singapore‟s GDP grew 2.0% y/y in H1-2013, following three consecutive quarters of positive growth at a q/q seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR). The H1 data included two strong positive signs fo...
We maintain our 2013 growth forecast of 4.7% for Malaysia. H1 growth was 4.2% y/y, and we expect a slightly better performance in H2, at 5.2% y/y. Domestic drivers have sustained growth in the past few quarters. As a high base affects domestic y/y g...
Economic activity in Vietnam continues to recover gradually, although the pace is slow by historical standards. GDP grew 5.14% in the first nine months of 2013. We estimate that Q3 growth was 5.54% y/y, faster than the 4.9% pace in H1-2013, although...
• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
Mekong region is attracting investor interest as a low-cost base, as reflected in our client survey
• The business environment varies widely across the region and can be challenging
• Infrastructure tends to be strong only in designated industria...
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