Growth is improving, but at a very gradual pace. Singapore‟s GDP grew 2.0% y/y in H1-2013, following three consecutive quarters of positive growth at a q/q seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR). The H1 data included two strong positive signs fo...
We maintain our 2013 growth forecast of 4.7% for Malaysia. H1 growth was 4.2% y/y, and we expect a slightly better performance in H2, at 5.2% y/y. Domestic drivers have sustained growth in the past few quarters. As a high base affects domestic y/y g...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
Economic activity in Vietnam continues to recover gradually, although the pace is slow by historical standards. GDP grew 5.14% in the first nine months of 2013. We estimate that Q3 growth was 5.54% y/y, faster than the 4.9% pace in H1-2013, although...
• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
Mekong region is attracting investor interest as a low-cost base, as reflected in our client survey
• The business environment varies widely across the region and can be challenging
• Infrastructure tends to be strong only in designated industria...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
• The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...
• The budget for FY13 remains focused on addressing economic restructuring and income inequality
• The government introduce measures to help companies weather the current restructuring phase
• Income redistribution, via measures such as more progr...
The Population White Paper projects slowing population growth
• Slowing population and workforce growth makes raising productivity imperative
• The economic structure may become more service-based to match population projections
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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