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  • Asia data previews – 8-15 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    China growth likely softened further in April, while inflation remained subdued • We expect the central banks of the Philippines and South Korea to keep policy rates on hold • IP growth in Malaysia probably eased in March; private consumption like...

  • Asia data previews – 2-8 May 2015 - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines • We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it • Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Asia economy trackers – Slight improvement vs Q4 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth • Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015 • Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...

  • Asia data previews – 3-10 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 3, 2015

    BoJ, RBA and RBI are likely to keep policy rates unchanged but ease further in Q2 • We also expect BoK to keep policy rates on hold for now and act on future data movements • China’s inflation and credit growth could ease, allowing room for furthe...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Feb – 6 Mar 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    • We expect the RBA and BNM to keep policy rates on hold; RBA may be a close call • Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines to release inflation data, with differing expectations • We see still-weak export growth in South Korea and Ma...

  • Asia data previews – 20-27 February 2015 - Updated Thu February 19, 2015

    Low energy prices likely pushed inflation lower in Hong Kong, Japan; deflation to persist in Singapore • We expect Hong Kong’s Q4 GDP growth to have slowed, Japan’s January data to show a recovery • Taiwan, Thailand current account surpluses likel...

  • 24-Nov – CBN response is key to NGN stability - Updated Sun November 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Final Q3 GDP may be revised slightly higher • Philippines – Trade balance to remain neutral on subdued imports • Hong Kong – October exports to reflect lingering external headwinds • Market focus • CBN MPC meeti...

  • Asia data previews – 24-28 Nov - Updated Fri November 21, 2014

    BoJ minutes to shed light on recent surprise easing • We expect India’s Q2-FY15 GDP growth to slow versus Q1 • Taiwan IP should remain robust; Singapore and Korea IP may be more subdued...

  • 13-Nov – Paving the way for Stock Connect - Updated Wed November 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – GDP growth likely rebounded after a weak Q2 • Malaysia – Manufacturing production likely supported overall IP • Euro area – Q3 GDP growth likely expanded 0.1% • Market focus • The relaxation of the daily convers...

  • Asia data previews – Week of 08-Nov - Updated Fri November 7, 2014

    We expect export, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth in China to have slightly eased from last month • We expect the BoK and BI to keep policy rates unchanged, • GDP growth in Malaysia was likely pulled back from robust level...

  • Asia data previews – Week of 01-Nov - Updated Fri October 31, 2014

    China’s manufacturing PMI likely remained flat amid weak domestic demand; we expect a 25bps deposit rate cut in Q4 • We expect RBA, BoT and BNM to keep policy rates unchanged in the week ahead; BoJ minutes may show some concern on inflation target ...

  • Asia – Three counter-attacks - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    Asia’s leverage issues are confined to certain pockets and are not an across-the-board concern • Asia’s productivity performance has been solid across the board since 2000 • It is not an 'importless' recovery in the West – we expect external dem...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • 14-Nov – Yellen’s hearing: Safety first - Updated Wed November 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Q3 GDP report to confirm continued resilience • Malaysia – GDP likely picked up as external demand improved • Philippines – Stable remittance growth likely • Market focus • We expect Yellen to ‘play it safe’ a...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • What NE Asian clients think . . . - Updated Tue September 24, 2013

    • During our client trip we surveyed 450 investor and corporate clients in Seoul, Taipei and Hong Kong • There is more optimism now than was the case in Q1-2013, contradicting the idea of any panic or crisis • Mainland China’s growth is still the ...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...



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