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  • 29-Sep – Marginal demand for EM bonds is weak - Updated Sun September 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP growth likely slowed due to strike and drop in exports • Japan – Key economic data point to a weak recovery • Euro area – We expect the CPI rate to remain at 0.4% y/y • Market focus • Marginal demand for ...

  • Q4 – Divergence - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodity outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • Searching for value in EM Asia fixed income markets - Updated Fri September 19, 2014

    We see the recent pull-back as an opportunity to selectively buy into EM; we expect Asia to outperform • Within high-yield Asia, we favour IDR over INR bond markets on improving fundamentals and asset rotation • Within low-yield Asia, we favour TH...

  • 15-Sep – Rotation from CEMEA into Asia to persist - Updated Sun September 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Overseas FX deposits extend their upswing • UK – CPI inflation rate was likely unchanged in August • United States – Likely reversal in August’s IP after strong July data • Market focus • Global liquidity to remai...

  • South Korea – Mixed sentiment - Updated Thu September 4, 2014

    • Domestic demand reflects recovering consumer sentiment, but supply-side sentiment remains soft • While industrial activity signals an expansion, trade flows have weakened due to China’s slowdown • We think the BoK will stay on hold in September;...

  • Thailand – FY15 infra spending and bond supply to be light - Updated Tue September 2, 2014

    BoT likely to stay on hold; infrastructure spending and related financing expected to be light in 2015 We estimate net supply of conventional LBs at just THB 133bn in FY15, vs. THB 164bn in FY14 We are Neutral on THB bonds, as yields are low; we a...

  • Take profit on short PHP 10Y bond trade - Updated Fri August 22, 2014

    We take profit on our short PHP 10Y bond position for a gain of 30bps (entry: 3.75%, current: 4.05%) • A new PHP 10Y bond was issued at the debt switch on 15-Aug-14, which pushed up long-end yields • Local factors remain bearish for PHP bonds, ...

  • 11-Aug – Recalibrating our Asian rates views - Updated Sun August 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Unemployment likely to fall as recovery resumes • Philippines – Export growth likely accelerated in June • India – We expect an IIP improvement and a CPI pick-up • Market focus • Domestic factors support stee...

  • 05-Aug – BoT to hold; bond flows to stay positive - Updated Mon August 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – The unemployment rate likely dropped to a five-year low • Australia – Jobless rate likely rose to 6.1%, participation to 64.8% • United States – ISMs may not align • Market focus • We expect the BoT to keep i...

  • Philippines – Budget implementation time - Updated Mon August 4, 2014

    President Aquino announces a PHP 2.61tn budget for 2015, maintaining a budget deficit of 2% • Focus on social and economic services shows that the current inclusive growth policies will continue • We recommend selling PHP 10Y bonds (entry: 3.75%...

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