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  • Thailand – FIFs to keep THBFIX low; receive 5Y IRS - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    AUM of foreign investment funds has hit USD 20bn, almost double the peak of Kimchi funds in 2010 • We expect FIFs’ AUM to grow further amid the postponement of infra-projects; this may keep THBFIX low • The economic outlook is weak given political...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 03-Apr – Indonesia continues to outperform EMs - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely rose sharply on a y/y basis in February • Philippines – Inflation likely remained on an uptrend • Germany – February factory orders expected to have risen, but only just • Market focus • Indonesia ...

  • Philippines – BSP to gradually normalise policy - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • BSP raises reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1ppt to 19%, starting its tightening cycle • We expect the RRR to be raised by another 1ppt at each of the two policy meetings in Q2-2014 • BSP is concerned about excess liquidity in the financial s...

  • Moderate impact on Asian bonds from GBI-EM re-weighting - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    • Colombia’s increased weighting in the GBI-EM will push Thailand’s and Indonesia’s weightings lower • Any asset-allocation shift should be gradual; impact on IDR bonds should be higher than on THB bonds • We take profit on our long THB 10Y positi...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • 14-Mar – Asian fixed income outperforms CEMEA’s - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – February exports likely benefited from a low base • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained buoyant in January • China – Growth moderated, but official data complicates the reading • Market focus • Indon...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • 11-Mar – A tale of two non-consensus calls - Updated Mon March 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – CPI to provide more reasons to cheer; IIP to disappoint • South Africa – Q4 current account deficit likely to have narrowed • Euro area – German, French and Italian data suggest upside to Jan IP • Market focus •...

  • 04-Mar – Spill-over from the Ukraine crisis - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q4 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to hold the policy rate at 1% • Chile – Getting ahead of the curve • Market focus • Asia, Africa and the Middle East have li...

  • Korea – New BoK Governor Lee seen as neutral - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    Event - South Korea’s presidential office today announced the appointment of Lee Joo Yeol as the new Bank of Korea (BoK) governor. This was a surprise, as the market had expected the new governor to be a more dovish choice from within the president’...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • Asian demand/supply outlook; buy 10Y THB bonds - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    Demand and supply dynamics are less favourable in 2014 than 2013 due to risk of foreign selling • IDR and MYR bonds vulnerable to foreign selling, as non-residents bought 30% of net supply in 2013 • On supply, PHP bonds stand out with net supply u...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • Thailand – Bracing for a prolonged political vacuum - Updated Tue January 7, 2014

    Several event risks could disrupt the 2 February election • The fate of PM Yingluck and the political future of coalition parties hinge on pending court cases • A prolonged political vacuum would undermine the economic recovery in H2-2014 • We ...

  • 07-Jan – Stay calm and wait - Updated Mon January 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade performance likely stayed firm in December • Malaysia – Exports probably improved further in November • Germany – Forging ahead • Market focus • Bank of Korea (BoK) will likely maintain its 7-day repo rate at...



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08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the BoK to maintain its 7-day repo rate at 2.50%...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.