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  • India – Index inclusion could be a game-changer - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Cap on FII investment in GoISecs is a barrier to India’s inclusion in popular bond indices • Inclusion in the J.P Morgan GBI-EMGD index could attract c.USD 20-40bn into GoISecs over a year • If India were included in the GBI-EMGD, this would be a ...

  • Assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze - Updated Fri June 28, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We outline key parameters and local factors in assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze • FX forward markets play a role in determining market behaviour and how USD funding stress is reflected • The mo...

  • India – Hope in challenging times - Updated Thu July 5, 2012

    Investors are more hopeful of measures from the new finance minister, but the macros are still lagging • Growth might have reached a floor in Q4-FY12 but is likely to remain below potential at 6.2% in FY13 • Lower oil prices could shift the FY13 B...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.