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  • 29-Apr – CNY: Assessing 2012 risks - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014 • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded • South Korea – IP backed by strong exports • Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure • Market focus • Ch...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • 20-Sep – Risk on! - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Higher transport inflation risks in the coming months • Gold – Prices surge as the Fed delays QE tapering • Euro area – PMIs to reinforce that sentiment is still in recovery mode • Market focus • We think the EM...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...



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