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  • Reserve management: A new strategic framework - Updated Wed April 30, 2014

    Central banks have made important strides in shifting away from their traditional focus on liquidity, segregating their reserve portfolios into different tranches. However, this change in focus is still at an early stage. To facilitate this process,...

  • 29-Apr – CNY: Assessing 2012 risks - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014 • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded • South Korea – IP backed by strong exports • Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure • Market focus • Ch...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...



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