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  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • Please note corrected time • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Te...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • 13-Mar – IDR and THB rallies to stall near-term - Updated Wed March 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes to shed more light on future policy stance • India – February WPI likely slipped below 5% • US – Retail sales likely picked up mildly as the weather improved • Market focus • We believe the IDR and TH...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • Sell SGD-TWD via 3M NDFs - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We expect TWD underperformance to reverse on better China data and more stable capital flows • TWD has so far lagged the KRW rebound, in the context of the USD pullback, but we look for catch-up • We recommend selling SGD-TWD, looking for this cro...

  • Sell THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We forecast USD-THB at 34.00 at end-Q2 on slowing growth, political deadlock • Technicals are turning bullish for USD-THB again; our SCTF data indicates light positioning in USD-THB • THB-US 10Y spread has fallen which according to our PCA analysi...

  • 11-Feb – Asian demand/supply outlook; buy 10Y THB - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GDP growth likely supported by increased external demand • China – Trade performance likely softened in January • US – Yellen’s testimony: Watch for hints about Fed’s forward guidance • Market focus • PHP bonds s...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 28 Jan – Meanwhile, the Fed tapers - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events Malaysia – BNM likely to keep rates on hold, remain cautious on growth • South Korea – IP likely rose modestly, despite the rail strike • Turkey – CBRT calls an emergency meeting Market focus • We do not think current market ...



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Trade idea

11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off following the parliamentary elections on 9...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.