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  • 27-Jan – China risks to weigh on AXJ local markets - Updated Sun January 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Growth likely picked up in Q4-2013 • UK – Preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP to show sturdy momentum • United States – Corporate investment likely supported Q4 GDP growth • Market focus • Limited contagion risk to Asia...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal on KRW, bullish on TWD - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    In December, our clients were large USD sellers vs. INR and KRW; large USD buyers vs. IDR, HKD, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and KRW; buyers of USD vs. PHP, HKD, IDR and THB • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • SGD-MYR to fall on growth, rate spreads, valuations - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Malaysia’s exports and trade balance have turned a corner; Singapore’s manufacturing PMI is faltering • SGD NEER is in the strong half of band; MYR-USD rates spread should provide some support for MYR • Bond investors should raise FX hedge ratios ...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • 06-Jan – Bearish SEA, bullish NEA - Updated Sun January 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest export sales data likely to boost producers’ confidence • Australia – Trade balance expected to be in deficit for 23rd month • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in January • Market focus • ...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri December 13, 2013

    In November, our clients were large USD sellers vs. KRW and INR; large USD buyers vs. CNH and THB • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. KRW and PHP; buyers of USD vs. TWD, HKD and IDR • Short USD positioning is large vs. PHP, KRW and TWD...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • FX strategy 2014: Dollar, disinflation and divergence - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    We expect further USD strength in H1-2014, with EM currencies still facing near-term challenges • Five FX themes for 2014: taper tantrums, rebalancing, valuation, policy divergence and value in volatility • EM currencies should see a better 2014 o...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 25-Nov – Asian manufacturing continues to recover - Updated Sun November 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in October • Japan – BoJ minutes expected to show little change in policy stance • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in September • Market focus • Four Asian countries will ...

  • Close short SGD-THB - Updated Tue November 19, 2013

    • Bond-driven currencies like THB are likely to underperform near-term on fund outflows, bond selling • Better Singapore data and the safe-haven nature of the SGD make it inappropriate as a funding currency • We close this trade, focusing on curr...

  • 13-Nov – How vulnerable are AXJ bond-currencies? - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – October WPI inflation to rise once again • Japan – Widening trade deficit likely weighed on Q3 GDP • Euro area – Q3 GDP likely barely sustained positive growth • Market focus • C/A deficit/bond-driven AXJ currencies ...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    In October, our clients were large USD sellers vs. TWD, CNY and INR; large USD buyers vs. THB • Our custodian clients were large sellers of USD vs. KRW and TWD; buyers of USD vs. SGD and THB • Short USD positioning is substantial vs. PHP, KRW and ...

  • 12 Nov – BoE optimistic on growth but no early hike - Updated Mon November 11, 2013

    • Bond-driven AXJ currencies to weaken near-term • Japan – Machinery orders likely dropped slightly on a m/m basis • South Korea – Outflows a blip, stay Overweight KRW Market focus • BoE Inflation Report forecasts will likely counter the market ...

  • Close short 1M/12M USD-IDR - Updated Mon November 11, 2013

    Strong NFP will put short-term pressure on bond-driven currencies such as the IDR • Given upside risks to UST yields near-term, USD-IDR NDF points are likely to edge higher near-term • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to re-enter a...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...

  • 04-Nov – BNM on hold despite inflation risks - Updated Sun November 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Food inflation likely led to higher inflation in October • Taiwan – We expect higher m/m inflation for October • UK – Expansion in PMI services may have moderated in October • Market focus • We expect BNM t...



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11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off following the parliamentary elections on 9...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.