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  • 27-Jan – China risks to weigh on AXJ local markets - Updated Sun January 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Growth likely picked up in Q4-2013 • UK – Preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP to show sturdy momentum • United States – Corporate investment likely supported Q4 GDP growth • Market focus • Limited contagion risk to Asia...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal on KRW, bullish on TWD - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    In December, our clients were large USD sellers vs. INR and KRW; large USD buyers vs. IDR, HKD, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and KRW; buyers of USD vs. PHP, HKD, IDR and THB • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • SGD-MYR to fall on growth, rate spreads, valuations - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Malaysia’s exports and trade balance have turned a corner; Singapore’s manufacturing PMI is faltering • SGD NEER is in the strong half of band; MYR-USD rates spread should provide some support for MYR • Bond investors should raise FX hedge ratios ...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • 06-Jan – Bearish SEA, bullish NEA - Updated Sun January 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest export sales data likely to boost producers’ confidence • Australia – Trade balance expected to be in deficit for 23rd month • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in January • Market focus • ...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri December 13, 2013

    In November, our clients were large USD sellers vs. KRW and INR; large USD buyers vs. CNH and THB • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. KRW and PHP; buyers of USD vs. TWD, HKD and IDR • Short USD positioning is large vs. PHP, KRW and TWD...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • FX strategy 2014: Dollar, disinflation and divergence - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    We expect further USD strength in H1-2014, with EM currencies still facing near-term challenges • Five FX themes for 2014: taper tantrums, rebalancing, valuation, policy divergence and value in volatility • EM currencies should see a better 2014 o...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...



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11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off following the parliamentary elections on 9...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.