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  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • 13-Mar – IDR and THB rallies to stall near-term - Updated Wed March 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes to shed more light on future policy stance • India – February WPI likely slipped below 5% • US – Retail sales likely picked up mildly as the weather improved • Market focus • We believe the IDR and TH...

  • 11-Feb – Asian demand/supply outlook; buy 10Y THB - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GDP growth likely supported by increased external demand • China – Trade performance likely softened in January • US – Yellen’s testimony: Watch for hints about Fed’s forward guidance • Market focus • PHP bonds s...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 28 Jan – Meanwhile, the Fed tapers - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events Malaysia – BNM likely to keep rates on hold, remain cautious on growth • South Korea – IP likely rose modestly, despite the rail strike • Turkey – CBRT calls an emergency meeting Market focus • We do not think current market ...

  • 27-Jan – China risks to weigh on AXJ local markets - Updated Sun January 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Growth likely picked up in Q4-2013 • UK – Preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP to show sturdy momentum • United States – Corporate investment likely supported Q4 GDP growth • Market focus • Limited contagion risk to Asia...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • 06-Jan – Bearish SEA, bullish NEA - Updated Sun January 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest export sales data likely to boost producers’ confidence • Australia – Trade balance expected to be in deficit for 23rd month • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in January • Market focus • ...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 25-Nov – Asian manufacturing continues to recover - Updated Sun November 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in October • Japan – BoJ minutes expected to show little change in policy stance • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in September • Market focus • Four Asian countries will ...

  • 13-Nov – How vulnerable are AXJ bond-currencies? - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – October WPI inflation to rise once again • Japan – Widening trade deficit likely weighed on Q3 GDP • Euro area – Q3 GDP likely barely sustained positive growth • Market focus • C/A deficit/bond-driven AXJ currencies ...

  • 12 Nov – BoE optimistic on growth but no early hike - Updated Mon November 11, 2013

    • Bond-driven AXJ currencies to weaken near-term • Japan – Machinery orders likely dropped slightly on a m/m basis • South Korea – Outflows a blip, stay Overweight KRW Market focus • BoE Inflation Report forecasts will likely counter the market ...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...



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11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off following the parliamentary elections on 9...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.