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  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

  • 28-May – BoT to cut; keep THB IRS steepener - Updated Mon May 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumer sector is on the path to recovery • Brazil – BCB likely to hike the SELIC rate • Germany – May’s unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 6.9% • Market focus • We expect the BoT to cut rates by 25bps to...

  • India – Withholding tax lowered for debt FIIs - Updated Tue April 30, 2013

    • Government lowers withholding tax on FII investments in GoISecs and corporate bonds to 5% from 20% • The move is supportive of GoISecs; stay long 4Y GoISecs (current 7.53%, entry 7.82%, target 7.50%, stop-loss 8.00%) • USD-INR is likely to trade...



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