PCA confirms that growth is the key driver of AXJ currencies, followed by carry and USD-CNY fixings
• China’s IP cycle leads KRW, TWD, IDR and MYR; local IP cycle is important for INR and TWD
• Recent drop in global and local IP cycles to weigh o...
Our SCTF Position Index shows clients remain substantially short USD vs. MYR, KRW, CNY, SGD
• Clients overall reduced USD shorts in August vs. CNH, CNY, INR, KRW, SGD; boosted vs. MYR, PHP
• Custodian clients are substantially short USD vs. MYR; l...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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