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  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 25-Jan-13 – The rotation in Asian FX - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index to suggest a rebound in the economy • NGN 1Y T-bill – Our new target is 11% (entry: 13.22%, stop-loss: 13%) • United States – New home sales likely ended 2012 on an uptrend • Market focus • Flows, p...

  • 04-Jan-13 – Building case for AXJ rotation - Updated Thu January 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Long NGN 5Y trade target revised to 11% • Taiwan – Inflation expected to pick up, exports to continue to improve • Commodities – Rising speculative positions on Brent and gasoil • Market focus • Case for AXJ rotat...

  • 20 Nov 12 – Signs of life in the East - Updated Mon November 19, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Export outlook is likely to remain gloomy • Nigeria – CBN seen on hold • UK – BoE minutes to indicate whether QE is likely to re-start soon • Market focus • The Philippines’ Q3 GDP to stay strong at 5.4% y/y on ro...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 03-Sep-12 – Asian central banks to stay put - Updated Sun September 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – MoU signed with mainland China on currency arrangement • Nigeria – We revise the target on our long 7Y NGN bond position • UK – Manufacturing likely to remain in contraction • Market focus • Australia, Thailand a...

  • 21-May-12 – Asia’s slowdown - Updated Sun May 20, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Hong Kong – April CPI inflation likely remained unchanged at 4.9% y/y • Nigeria – We now expect the CBN to keep the MPR on hold this year • UK – Door left ajar for QE3 as inflation concerns diminish • Market focus • Q1 T...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.