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  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • 11-Feb – Asian demand/supply outlook; buy 10Y THB - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GDP growth likely supported by increased external demand • China – Trade performance likely softened in January • US – Yellen’s testimony: Watch for hints about Fed’s forward guidance • Market focus • PHP bonds s...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal on KRW, bullish on TWD - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    In December, our clients were large USD sellers vs. INR and KRW; large USD buyers vs. IDR, HKD, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and KRW; buyers of USD vs. PHP, HKD, IDR and THB • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri December 13, 2013

    In November, our clients were large USD sellers vs. KRW and INR; large USD buyers vs. CNH and THB • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. KRW and PHP; buyers of USD vs. TWD, HKD and IDR • Short USD positioning is large vs. PHP, KRW and TWD...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • FX strategy 2014: Dollar, disinflation and divergence - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    We expect further USD strength in H1-2014, with EM currencies still facing near-term challenges • Five FX themes for 2014: taper tantrums, rebalancing, valuation, policy divergence and value in volatility • EM currencies should see a better 2014 o...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    In October, our clients were large USD sellers vs. TWD, CNY and INR; large USD buyers vs. THB • Our custodian clients were large sellers of USD vs. KRW and TWD; buyers of USD vs. SGD and THB • Short USD positioning is substantial vs. PHP, KRW and ...

  • 31-Oct – AXJ currencies to strengthen further - Updated Wed October 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely saw a marginal improvement • Indonesia – Headline inflation likely remained low m/m in October • US – A neutral FOMC awaits better data before pulling the trigger • Market focus • AXJ curren...

  • 17-Oct – Asia’s safe havens - Updated Wed October 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – GDP growth likely picked up, policy expected to be on hold • Mexico – MXN likely to lead Latam FX on US debt deal • US – The shutdown impact may be reflected in jobless claims • Market focus • CNY is Asia’s safe-hav...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • NEA (ex-CNY) and INR are cheap relative to SEA - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    CNY’s powerful trade-weighted advance makes it a major AXJ outperformer in trade-weighted terms • Only INR has seen substantial NEER losses recently and is now undervalued on a REER basis • Valuation and external balances are KRW- and TWD- ...

  • Assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze - Updated Fri June 28, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We outline key parameters and local factors in assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze • FX forward markets play a role in determining market behaviour and how USD funding stress is reflected • The mo...

  • 28-Jun – Enjoy it while it lasts - Updated Thu June 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI is on a weakening trend • Japan – Q2 Tankan survey is likely to show continued improvement • NZD – Revised NZD-USD forecasts • Market focus • EM local markets are likely to consolidate near-ter...

  • Sell USD-CNY 5M NDF vs. existing USD-CNH long - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    USD-CNH forwards edge up on spot rebound and broad US dollar strength, favouring our USD long • Retreat in CNY’s trade-weighted value on the JPY rebound moderates case for higher USD-CNY fixes • Selling USD-CNY NDF 5M against our existing USD...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...



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