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  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • 25-Nov – Asian manufacturing continues to recover - Updated Sun November 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in October • Japan – BoJ minutes expected to show little change in policy stance • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in September • Market focus • Four Asian countries will ...

  • 04-Nov – BNM on hold despite inflation risks - Updated Sun November 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Food inflation likely led to higher inflation in October • Taiwan – We expect higher m/m inflation for October • UK – Expansion in PMI services may have moderated in October • Market focus • We expect BNM t...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • 28-Aug – The Asian ‘reality check’ - Updated Tue August 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q2 • South Korea – Slight improvement in IP is expected • Italy – Improving sentiment despite political uncertainty • Market focus • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style ...

  • 14-Aug – BI likely to hike rates on inflation risks - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Solid remittance growth expected for June • Singapore – Motor vehicles likely dragged down June retail sales • Mexico – The long-awaited step in the right direction • Market focus • We expect BI to raise the ...

  • Sell TWD-PHP - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    We see the Philippines as having the strongest fundamentals in Asia on growth, CA, fiscal consolidation • Elevated NEER and equity outflows to weigh on TWD near-term • Forward points, levels and seasonal factors make it attractive to sell TWD-PHP ...

  • Assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze - Updated Fri June 28, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We outline key parameters and local factors in assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze • FX forward markets play a role in determining market behaviour and how USD funding stress is reflected • The mo...

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