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  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • 25-Nov – Asian manufacturing continues to recover - Updated Sun November 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in October • Japan – BoJ minutes expected to show little change in policy stance • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in September • Market focus • Four Asian countries will ...

  • 04-Nov – BNM on hold despite inflation risks - Updated Sun November 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Food inflation likely led to higher inflation in October • Taiwan – We expect higher m/m inflation for October • UK – Expansion in PMI services may have moderated in October • Market focus • We expect BNM t...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • 28-Aug – The Asian ‘reality check’ - Updated Tue August 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q2 • South Korea – Slight improvement in IP is expected • Italy – Improving sentiment despite political uncertainty • Market focus • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style ...

  • 14-Aug – BI likely to hike rates on inflation risks - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Solid remittance growth expected for June • Singapore – Motor vehicles likely dragged down June retail sales • Mexico – The long-awaited step in the right direction • Market focus • We expect BI to raise the ...

  • Sell TWD-PHP - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    We see the Philippines as having the strongest fundamentals in Asia on growth, CA, fiscal consolidation • Elevated NEER and equity outflows to weigh on TWD near-term • Forward points, levels and seasonal factors make it attractive to sell TWD-PHP ...

  • Assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze - Updated Fri June 28, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We outline key parameters and local factors in assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze • FX forward markets play a role in determining market behaviour and how USD funding stress is reflected • The mo...

  • SC FIRST – EM bonds to fall; sell PHP, IDR bonds - Updated Thu June 20, 2013

    SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds • We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook • New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...

  • 14-Jun – Surprise BI rate hike - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance inflows likely rebounded after a weak March • Singapore – Export performance expected to have remained lacklustre • India – Wide trade deficit and weaker INR represent risks to our rate-cut call • M...

  • 06-May – A tale of two cities - Updated Sun May 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation is likely to remain benign in Q2-Q3 • Australia – RBA is likely to wait and see; policy rate should be unchanged • Germany – Weak factory orders and likely falling demand • Market focus • S&P...

  • Close long PHP vs. G3 - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Recent weakness in Philippine data and potential further SDA adjustments to weigh on PHP near-term • Rich valuations in the PHP and local asset markets to weigh on PHP in Q2 • We look to re-buy PHP in H2 when PHP appreciation should resume on stro...

  • 12-Apr – China consolidated in Q1 - Updated Thu April 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Likely market reaction on possible MAS announcements • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained robust in February • US – March’s retail sales to feel the pinch of the fiscal drag • Market focus • We expe...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • Buy PHP vs. G3 - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • We are bullish on the PHP on strong growth, solid C/A balance and rating upgrade expectations • Our Standard Chartered Transaction Flows indicate clients were net long USD-PHP as of end-February • Onshore, our Philippine clients are very bullis...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...

  • 11-Mar – AXJ capital inflows, but no FX rally - Updated Sun March 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic prices are expected to remain low for longer • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed January export growth • India – February trade deficit might provide cues for monetary policy • Market focus •...

  • Philippines – Positives for current account outlook - Updated Wed March 6, 2013

    We expect a larger current account surplus in 2013, supported by services exports and remittances • The BoP backdrop provides a strong argument for an investment-grade rating by 2014 • We maintain our Overweight stance on the PHP, although we expe...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.