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  • US: Fed hike in a time of ‘lowflation’ - Updated Wed March 25, 2015

    September remains the most likely timing for the first Fed hike, in our view; the March FOMC meeting and subsequent Fed comments lend credence to our call • Fed’s tightening cycle is likely to be moderate compared with previous cycles; we think the...

  • The solitude of Latin America - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Latam currencies remain vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a renewed UST sell-off • Faced with high inflation, Latam central banks have generally not participated in this year’s easing round • We raise our USD-Latam FX forecasts and reduce o...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • MXN – A shot across the bow - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    MXN has sold off sharply in recent trading sessions, reversing a solid performance for much of 2014 • The sell-off reflects lower oil prices, weaker domestic activity and a downbeat Banxico • Announcement of USD auctions is aimed at moderating the...

  • 05-Dec – US: No wage gain, no UST pain - Updated Thu December 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus likely widened in November on weak imports • Japan – Q3 GDP likely to be revised up; C/A surplus likely narrowed • Mexico – Weakening MXN should keep Banxico on hold • Market focus • Our November NFP f...

  • 2015: The year of the US Fed rate hike - Updated Wed December 3, 2014

    We expect US GDP growth to pick up to 2.8% in 2015 • Lower oil prices are, on net, a tailwind for the US economy; but energy-related investment could be hit • Core inflation is likely to remain low, with some pass-through from lower energy prices ...

  • 03-Dec – ECB watches and waits for deflation - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Canada – BoC firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode as oil prices fall • US – ISM non-manufacturing index scrutinised ahead of payrolls • Brazil – We expect the BCB to deliver a 25bps hike • Market focus • New ECB forecasts likely ...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

  • Brazil – Ain’t no SELIC high enough - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    The COPOM minutes shows the BCB mainly responded to a weaker BRL • We expect the COPOM to tighten at least another 100bps in consecutive 25bps hikes • More disappointing signals on the fiscal front could generate a longer and/or steeper hiking cy...

  • 31-Oct – Weaker MXN to keep Banxico on hold - Updated Thu October 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI introduces regulation on hedging foreign-currency debt • China – No improvement in the manufacturing sector expected • US – Low wage growth and soft inflation to keep the Fed patient • Market focus • We expe...

  • 28-Oct – Brazil: Dilma’s chance to change her tune - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Asia macro trackers – Philippines growth, current account heating up • Japan – Industrial production likely rebounded in September • US – Aircrafts orders likely to support September’s durable goods • Market focus • Dilma ...

  • Brazil – Same record, different tune? - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Dilma returned to office by the narrowest margin in the post-war era • Local market sentiment remains weak but FX positioning suggests that investors were prepared • Dilma’s next finance minister appointment will be critical in stabilising market ...

  • US − Monetary normalisation ahead - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    We expect US growth of 2.2% in 2014, 2.6% in 2015 • A mixed housing outlook, likely still-soft wage gains curb our expectation for growth to exceed 3.0% next year • Fed: We expect a rate hike in June 2015, followed by 100bps of tightening per year...

  • 07-Oct – Brazil: To a run-off we go - Updated Mon October 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank in August • China – CNH discount likely to narrow after the Golden Week holiday • United States – FOMC minutes likely hawkish • Market focus • Brazil’s presidential elections will go to a ...

  • 02-Oct – Brazil: The irrepressible Dilma - Updated Wed October 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – New parliament members inaugurated • Japan – Q3 Tankan survey results will likely reduce pressure on BoJ • UK – We expect UK composite PMI to decrease • Market focus • First-round voting on 5 October may not pr...

  • Brazil: Presidential election preview - Updated Wed October 1, 2014

    First-round voting on 5 October may not produce a winner; a second-round vote is likely on 26 October • President Dilma has retaken the lead in recent polls and the BRL remains the regional underperformer • Marina’s inability to consolidate early ...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

  • Q4 – Divergence - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodity outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...



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