Choose the category below to
refine article list
FX

Regions

Search Results

Results: 1 - 20 of 85 for 
Display 
 per page
Sort result by 
  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Canada – BoC – A temporary stay - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Better-than-expected March employment data is likely to delay the next BoC rate cut • We push back our rate-cut call to the 27 May meeting; we therefore expect no change on 15 April • We still expect two more rate cuts as the economy deteriorates,...

  • US: Fed hike in a time of ‘lowflation’ - Updated Wed March 25, 2015

    September remains the most likely timing for the first Fed hike, in our view; the March FOMC meeting and subsequent Fed comments lend credence to our call • Fed’s tightening cycle is likely to be moderate compared with previous cycles; we think the...

  • The solitude of Latin America - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Latam currencies remain vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a renewed UST sell-off • Faced with high inflation, Latam central banks have generally not participated in this year’s easing round • We raise our USD-Latam FX forecasts and reduce o...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • MXN – A shot across the bow - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    MXN has sold off sharply in recent trading sessions, reversing a solid performance for much of 2014 • The sell-off reflects lower oil prices, weaker domestic activity and a downbeat Banxico • Announcement of USD auctions is aimed at moderating the...

  • 05-Dec – US: No wage gain, no UST pain - Updated Thu December 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus likely widened in November on weak imports • Japan – Q3 GDP likely to be revised up; C/A surplus likely narrowed • Mexico – Weakening MXN should keep Banxico on hold • Market focus • Our November NFP f...

  • 2015: The year of the US Fed rate hike - Updated Wed December 3, 2014

    We expect US GDP growth to pick up to 2.8% in 2015 • Lower oil prices are, on net, a tailwind for the US economy; but energy-related investment could be hit • Core inflation is likely to remain low, with some pass-through from lower energy prices ...

  • 03-Dec – ECB watches and waits for deflation - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Canada – BoC firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode as oil prices fall • US – ISM non-manufacturing index scrutinised ahead of payrolls • Brazil – We expect the BCB to deliver a 25bps hike • Market focus • New ECB forecasts likely ...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

  • Brazil – Ain’t no SELIC high enough - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    The COPOM minutes shows the BCB mainly responded to a weaker BRL • We expect the COPOM to tighten at least another 100bps in consecutive 25bps hikes • More disappointing signals on the fiscal front could generate a longer and/or steeper hiking cy...

  • 31-Oct – Weaker MXN to keep Banxico on hold - Updated Thu October 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI introduces regulation on hedging foreign-currency debt • China – No improvement in the manufacturing sector expected • US – Low wage growth and soft inflation to keep the Fed patient • Market focus • We expe...

  • US – Fed to wait for consumers to get out and spend - Updated Thu October 30, 2014

    Q3 GDP was solid at 3.5% q/q SAAR, but the headline was flattered by some volatile elements • Activity momentum has softened recently; we forecast a moderation in Q4 GDP growth • Still-mixed private consumption and low inflation pressures support ...

  • 28-Oct – Brazil: Dilma’s chance to change her tune - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Asia macro trackers – Philippines growth, current account heating up • Japan – Industrial production likely rebounded in September • US – Aircrafts orders likely to support September’s durable goods • Market focus • Dilma ...

  • Brazil – Same record, different tune? - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Dilma returned to office by the narrowest margin in the post-war era • Local market sentiment remains weak but FX positioning suggests that investors were prepared • Dilma’s next finance minister appointment will be critical in stabilising market ...

  • Oil price effects on Asia, the US and Latam - Updated Fri October 24, 2014

    • We estimate the macro impact of a sustained change in oil prices • The impact will likely be affected by whether supply or demand dynamics drive the move more • Lower oil costs will likely result in reverse stagflation • Our central case is for...

  • US − Monetary normalisation ahead - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    We expect US growth of 2.2% in 2014, 2.6% in 2015 • A mixed housing outlook, likely still-soft wage gains curb our expectation for growth to exceed 3.0% next year • Fed: We expect a rate hike in June 2015, followed by 100bps of tightening per year...

  • 07-Oct – Brazil: To a run-off we go - Updated Mon October 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank in August • China – CNH discount likely to narrow after the Golden Week holiday • United States – FOMC minutes likely hawkish • Market focus • Brazil’s presidential elections will go to a ...



Go to page
  

New User

Find out more about our research

Straight2Bank User

Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.