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  • 18-May – MPC to focus on Nigeria FX decision - Updated Sun May 17, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at 0.0% y/y • UK – CPI inflation likely turned negative in April • Mexico – Banxico biding its time • Market focus • Nigeria MPC to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday 19 May ...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    We model and assess the impact of shocks originating in the US on 12 economies in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America • We forecast a very tame US hiking cycle but what if the move is much more dramatic than expected • Q&A...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Canada – BoC – A temporary stay - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Better-than-expected March employment data is likely to delay the next BoC rate cut • We push back our rate-cut call to the 27 May meeting; we therefore expect no change on 15 April • We still expect two more rate cuts as the economy deteriorates,...

  • US: Fed hike in a time of ‘lowflation’ - Updated Wed March 25, 2015

    September remains the most likely timing for the first Fed hike, in our view; the March FOMC meeting and subsequent Fed comments lend credence to our call • Fed’s tightening cycle is likely to be moderate compared with previous cycles; we think the...

  • The solitude of Latin America - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Latam currencies remain vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a renewed UST sell-off • Faced with high inflation, Latam central banks have generally not participated in this year’s easing round • We raise our USD-Latam FX forecasts and reduce o...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • MXN – A shot across the bow - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    MXN has sold off sharply in recent trading sessions, reversing a solid performance for much of 2014 • The sell-off reflects lower oil prices, weaker domestic activity and a downbeat Banxico • Announcement of USD auctions is aimed at moderating the...



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Trade idea

18-May – MPC to focus on Nigeria FX decision

Top 3 data/events • Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at 0.0% y/y • UK – CPI inflation likely turned negative in April • Mexico – Banxico biding its time • Market focus • Nigeria MPC to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday 19 May • FX market liberalisation, rather than...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

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