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  • US: Fed hike in a time of ‘lowflation’ - Updated Wed March 25, 2015

    September remains the most likely timing for the first Fed hike, in our view; the March FOMC meeting and subsequent Fed comments lend credence to our call • Fed’s tightening cycle is likely to be moderate compared with previous cycles; we think the...

  • The solitude of Latin America - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Latam currencies remain vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a renewed UST sell-off • Faced with high inflation, Latam central banks have generally not participated in this year’s easing round • We raise our USD-Latam FX forecasts and reduce o...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • MXN – A shot across the bow - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    MXN has sold off sharply in recent trading sessions, reversing a solid performance for much of 2014 • The sell-off reflects lower oil prices, weaker domestic activity and a downbeat Banxico • Announcement of USD auctions is aimed at moderating the...

  • 05-Dec – US: No wage gain, no UST pain - Updated Thu December 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus likely widened in November on weak imports • Japan – Q3 GDP likely to be revised up; C/A surplus likely narrowed • Mexico – Weakening MXN should keep Banxico on hold • Market focus • Our November NFP f...

  • 2015: The year of the US Fed rate hike - Updated Wed December 3, 2014

    We expect US GDP growth to pick up to 2.8% in 2015 • Lower oil prices are, on net, a tailwind for the US economy; but energy-related investment could be hit • Core inflation is likely to remain low, with some pass-through from lower energy prices ...

  • 03-Dec – ECB watches and waits for deflation - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Canada – BoC firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode as oil prices fall • US – ISM non-manufacturing index scrutinised ahead of payrolls • Brazil – We expect the BCB to deliver a 25bps hike • Market focus • New ECB forecasts likely ...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

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