Choose the category below to
refine article list
Region
FX
Trade Ideas

Regions

Search Results

Results: 1 - 20 of 91 for 
Display 
 per page
Sort result by 
  • COP – A strong house in a high-beta neighbourhood - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Colombia’s strong local growth story and robust capital-inflow outlook underpins our bullish COP view • We revise our end-Q2 USD-COP forecast to 1,900 (from 1,930) and keep end-Q3 at 1,870 • We stay Overweight the COP against the USD over both sho...

  • 28-Mar – Time to embrace the sales-tax hike - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Downward price pressures pose a conundrum for the ECB • US – February core PCE inflation to remain stable at 1.1% y/y • Colombia – We reiterate our Overweight FX rating on the COP • Market focus • Tankan survey ...

  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • PBoC delivers a decisive band widening - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    PBoC doubles width of USD-CNY onshore trading band to +/-2% in a decisive step to boost FX volatility Mild CNY appreciation is still likely medium-term, but the ‘one-way’ CNY trajectory is over Leveraged funds: We still like long 1Y ATMF USD-CN...

  • Brazil – Outlook and key themes for 2014 - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Economic indicators continue to disappoint. The latest figures show a poor performance for the third consecutive year. We expect 2014 to be similar. A weaker currency and a stronger global economy will likely boost external demand, while internal de...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • 04-Mar – Spill-over from the Ukraine crisis - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q4 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to hold the policy rate at 1% • Chile – Getting ahead of the curve • Market focus • Asia, Africa and the Middle East have li...

  • MXN – Don’t beat a dead piñata - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Enthusiasm for reform leaves scope for disappointment, especially with bond positioning crowded • The external environment is changing and the MXN is vulnerable to more US data misses • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 3M USD-MXN call spreads ...

  • Sell GBP-CAD - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning model is showing a ‘Sell’ signal for GBP-CAD, pointing to a downside correction • Canada’s fundamentals have improved; short-term factors are supporting the GBP, despite weaker data • We are adding GBP-CAD shorts to the Stan...

  • SC IMM: ‘Sell’ signal in GBP-CAD on crowded longs - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning model is showing a ‘Sell’ signal for GBP-CAD, pointing to a downside correction • Net GBP-CAD longs are at historical extremes, while fundamentals suggest the uptrend is exhausted • Leveraged funds should buy 1M GBP-CAD put ...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • Mexico – Not quite there yet - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth • In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior • Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...

  • 29-Jan – Preparing for Japan’s sales-tax hike - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q4 • New Zealand – We expect RBNZ to leave rate unchanged at a low 2.50% • Argentina – We raise our USD-ARS forecasts • Market focus • December data is likely to show earl...

  • 24-Jan – RBI looks likely to extend the pause - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Annual trade deficit likely widened in 2013 • Argentina – A rude awakening • Germany – Ifo survey likely to reflect a sharp rise in business activity • Market focus • Significant reduction in headline CPI, weak gro...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...

  • Brazil – Doves, hawks and opportunists - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February • Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB • We recommend that investors open a J...

  • SC IMM: Positioning risks show AUD ‘Buy’ signal - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally • Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes • Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...

  • Introducing SC IMM: A reassessment of the IMM data - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    We introduce our SC IMM heatmap to leverage off the CFTC/IMM’s disaggregated FX position data • This unique tool provides strong signals of extreme positioning skew and potential FX trading indicators • Back-testing confirms that SC IMM and our me...



Go to page
  

New User

Find out more about our research

Straight2Bank User

Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account

Trade idea

28-Mar – Time to embrace the sales-tax hike

Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Downward price pressures pose a conundrum for the ECB • US – February core PCE inflation to remain stable at 1.1% y/y • Colombia – We reiterate our Overweight FX rating on the COP • Market focus • Tankan survey is likely to show improvement in the current...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.