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  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Q1 – Flows versus fundamentals - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...

  • 02-Aug-12 – FOMC keeps options wide open [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed August 1, 2012

    This supersedes the version dated 02 August 2012. Amends key data/events today table. • Top 3 data/events • Grains – Market rallies on dry US weather • Euro area – Draghi could announce bond buying for Spain, Italy • United States – US ADP is...

  • United States – Fed to wait for expected pick-up - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    QE3 is unlikely in July and better data by September should keep the Fed on hold • A ‘fiscal cliff’ could trigger QE in 2013, but a ‘fiscal slope’ will not • Currency – An unexpected dose of QE3 would be USD-negative, but other factors are at play...

  • Q3 – Catching the turn - Updated Wed July 11, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • 01-Jun-12 – Locals to provide bond-market support - Updated Thu May 31, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – A bleak month for the CNY • Crude oil – Upside still likely • United States – No fast progress on NFP • Market focus • Inflation expectations have been curtailed in light of the euro-area crisis • Central banks in...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.