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  • China – SME index distorted by holiday effect - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • Asia – Breaking with the bearish view - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    After meeting clients around Asia and the US, we find the mood to be subdued but optimistic long-term • We are less bearish on China’s growth prospects due to property- and debt-related factors • Confusion reigns over monetary policy reaction fun...

  • Asia leverage – China’s debt/GDP ratio stabilises - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    • China’s q/q GDP growth is now in line with credit growth, ending the period of worsening debt/GDP ratios • China’s debt/GDP ratio may end 2015 flat versus mid-2014, a significant achievement • External debt is in focus for India, Indonesia and...

  • Asia macro trackers – Room for monetary easing - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    • The Philippines emerges as the best performer in Asia in Q4-2014 • Thailand’s growth tracker signals a pick-up in GDP from very soft levels; Indonesia’s GDP remains soft • Current account trackers are stronger than before ...

  • China – Our big real-estate developer survey - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    Our proprietary survey of 30 developers suggests that a mild recovery is on the horizon • Sales are slow and buyers remain cautious despite modest price cuts and discounts • However, respondents expect construction activity to accelerate this yea...

  • Vietnam – What Vietnamese clients think - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Our Vietnam-based clients are the most bullish in the region, according to our poll • They are most concerned about the local economy, followed by the EU and China • The majority see upside risks to USD-VND in 2015, in line with our view...

  • China cuts RRR 50bps, more broad easing to come - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    • Event • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) today announced a 50bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut effective from 5 February (equivalent to adding approximately CNY 570bn to the system). The PBoC introduced an additional targeted RRR cut of 5...

  • Indonesia – What Indonesian clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...

  • South Korea – What Korean clients think - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Korean clients have turned much more bearish on business prospects and the economic outlook in 2015 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • More than 70% of respondents expect the KRW to weaken vs. USD in 201...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • Malaysia – What Malaysian clients think - Updated Fri January 16, 2015

    Pessimists significantly outnumber optimists in our survey of Malaysian clients • Clients are most worried about Malaysia; however, cost is no longer a concern • Malaysian clients remain bearish on the MYR; their 2014 bearish call proved accurate...

  • Korea – To buy or not to buy a home? - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    South Korea’s younger generation faces a dilemma over whether or not to buy a home • BoK is likely to cut the interest rate by 25bps in Q1-2015, which will support asset prices, in our view • Expansionary monetary policy, along with macro-prudenti...

  • US macro and rates update - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation and Q&A with: • David Mann, Head, Asia Macro Research (host) • Thomas Costerg, US Economist • John Davies, US Rates Strategist • Bruno Lettich, Head, G10 R...

  • Asia macro trackers – Exports boost NE Asia growth - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    External demand is improving, particularly for Japan and China; exports to the US are ‘heating up’ • Japan’s GDP tracker suggests a respite after two bad quarters; South Korea’s points to a slowdown • We expect further policy rate cuts in China an...

  • Thought Leadership Compendium - Updated Thu January 8, 2015

    Global trade – It’s only resting • Productivity – Increasingly critical as the demographic dividend fades • Inequality – Widening within, but narrowing between, countries • Financial inclusion – Its potential as a poverty fighter • ASEAN – G...

  • China – 10 things to watch in 2015 - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    We expect GDP growth to average 7.1% in 2015: 7.1% in Q1, 7.2% in Q2 and Q3, and 7.0% in Q4 CPI inflation should average 2%; disinflationary pressure is set to build over the next six months We forecast one more interest rate cut in Q1; weakening ...

  • 08-Dec – It’s not what they do, it’s what they say - Updated Sun December 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • UK – Industrial production likely improved marginally in October • Germany – Trade surplus likely remained close to a record high • United States – Fed hawks have the upper hand after strong NFP data • Market focus • Polic...

  • What Korean and Japanese clients think - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness • Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming • Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...

  • ASEAN – Growth in the fast lane - Updated Wed November 5, 2014

    The outlook is bright for ASEAN’s highly diverse and fast-growing economies • ASEAN’s GDP growth outpaced global growth by 2ppt between 1980-2013 • The region has been the world’s fastest-growing since the 1980s; many of its economies have room ...



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