We expect RBI to cut policy rate by 25bps, and RBA to pause after cutting in May
• Inflationary pressure is building in Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea; we expect negative prints in Taiwan, Thailand
• Exports from Malaysia and South Korea ...
Current account surpluses are rising across Asia, but they are led by falling imports
Regional inflation remains low, with even food prices tapering
Monetary conditions tighten as real interest rates rise, room for easing remains...
We model and assess the impact of shocks originating in the US on 12 economies in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America
• We forecast a very tame US hiking cycle but what if the move is much more dramatic than expected
• We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
• The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...
• MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January
• GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses
• We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...
Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth
• Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015
• Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...
• You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Tuesday 14 April 2015 at 10:00 SGT with:
• David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia
• Jeff Ng, SEA Economist
• Divya Devesh, FX Strategist
• Topics include:
Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year
• They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015
• Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...
The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved
Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further
Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...
• We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views
• Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists
• Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...
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