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  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Singapore – MAS in wait-and-see mode - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    • MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January • GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses • We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...

  • Asia economy trackers – Slight improvement vs Q4 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth • Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015 • Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...

  • Singapore – Impact of MAS policy decision - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Tuesday 14 April 2015 at 10:00 SGT with: • David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia • Jeff Ng, SEA Economist • Divya Devesh, FX Strategist • Topics include: • Rati...

  • Philippines – What our clients think - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year • They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015 • Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...

  • China – SME index distorted by holiday effect - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • Asia – Breaking with the bearish view - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    After meeting clients around Asia and the US, we find the mood to be subdued but optimistic long-term • We are less bearish on China’s growth prospects due to property- and debt-related factors • Confusion reigns over monetary policy reaction fun...

  • Asia leverage – China’s debt/GDP ratio stabilises - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    • China’s q/q GDP growth is now in line with credit growth, ending the period of worsening debt/GDP ratios • China’s debt/GDP ratio may end 2015 flat versus mid-2014, a significant achievement • External debt is in focus for India, Indonesia and...

  • Asia macro trackers – Room for monetary easing - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    • The Philippines emerges as the best performer in Asia in Q4-2014 • Thailand’s growth tracker signals a pick-up in GDP from very soft levels; Indonesia’s GDP remains soft • Current account trackers are stronger than before ...

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