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  • Global Focus conference call – The world in transition - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Re...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • Please note corrected time • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Te...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Resea...

  • US macro and rates update - Updated Mon March 10, 2014

    • Recent US data flow has been uneven; harsh weather conditions have muddied the data picture. • But the Fed is looking beyond the snowstorms and seems determined to end its quantitative easing programme. • Continued reductions of USD 10bn at ea...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • 23-Jan – Trip notes from Japan - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Upside to IP expected to be muted • Vietnam – Jan inflation likely edged higher, but still controllable • US – Existing home sales were likely up slightly in December • Market focus • Japanese clients are positi...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • 28-Aug – The Asian ‘reality check’ - Updated Tue August 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q2 • South Korea – Slight improvement in IP is expected • Italy – Improving sentiment despite political uncertainty • Market focus • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style ...

  • 19-Aug – Better news, Neutral EM - Updated Sun August 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Steady tech demand likely supported export orders in July • Korea – The capital market’s ‘sudden stop’ is beginning to ease • Hong Kong – Underlying inflation likely edged higher • Market focus • Recent US, China a...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • 10-May – The rise of the doves - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Modest recovery likely continued in April • India – Slower CPI increases expected • United States – Fed speakers are unlikely to surprise the market • Market focus • BoK’s surprise decision to cut 25bps is the start...

  • South Korea – BoK joins the ‘even more easing’ party - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    • BoK unexpectedly cut its base rate by 25bps to 2.50%; we now see 50bps of more cuts in 2013 • The post-meeting statement cited external conditions, low inflation and mixed domestic demand • BoK will consider the effects of the supplementary budg...

  • Q1 – Flows versus fundamentals - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...

  • 21-Jan-13 – Our ASEAN survey - Updated Sun January 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q4 inflation expected to rise to 2.2% ahead of RBA meeting • Japan – The Bank of Japan is in the spotlight again • Nigeria ─ CBN seen keeping monetary policy rate on hold at 12% • Market focus • Growth outlook ...

  • 03-Jan-13 – Cliff-hanger, the sequel - Updated Wed January 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic investors likely stepped up foreign bond purchases • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum probably accelerated • Singapore – PMI likely to reflect subdued sentiment • Market focus • The US avoided the fisca...

  • United States – FOMC to expand QE3 - Updated Tue December 11, 2012

    QE3 – the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet is set to step up a gear • By ceasing to sell short-maturity Treasury bonds, the Fed brings Operation Twist 2 to a close • By continuing to buy long-maturity Treasury bonds, the Fed’s balance sheet w...

  • 11-Dec-12 – Top EM rates trades for 2013 - Updated Mon December 10, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – October IIP print likely to be the strongest so far in FY13 • Japan – Data releases likely to bring few surprises • United States – FOMC to end 2012 without a twist, but with a QE bang • Market focus • We remain b...

  • 10-Dec-12 – Turning ‘Twist’ into a super-sized QE3 - Updated Sun December 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI rate likely to remain unchanged in December • Philippines – Favourable base effect to support Q4 export growth • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in October • Market focus • The US Federal Reser...

  • 02-Nov-12 – It’s the Electoral College that matters - Updated Thu November 1, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect a robust Q3 growth reading • Taiwan – CPI was likely above 2% for a fourth straight month • United States – The labour market still has a long way to go • Market focus • While polls show a tied pop...

  • United States – One day, normalcy will return - Updated Wed October 31, 2012

    We look for the Fed to stay on hold until Q3-2015, with QE3 likely to last until mid-2014 • We expect a normalisation in 2015-16; tighter monetary policy and better growth to be blunted by Basel III demand for safe assets • This normalisation is e...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.