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  • Asia data previews – 29 May-5 June 2015 - Updated Fri May 29, 2015

    We expect RBI to cut policy rate by 25bps, and RBA to pause after cutting in May • Inflationary pressure is building in Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea; we expect negative prints in Taiwan, Thailand • Exports from Malaysia and South Korea ...

  • Asia economy trackers – Rising C/A surpluses - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    Current account surpluses are rising across Asia, but they are led by falling imports Regional inflation remains low, with even food prices tapering Monetary conditions tighten as real interest rates rise, room for easing remains...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    We model and assess the impact of shocks originating in the US on 12 economies in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America • We forecast a very tame US hiking cycle but what if the move is much more dramatic than expected • Q&A...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Singapore – MAS in wait-and-see mode - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    • MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January • GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses • We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...

  • Asia economy trackers – Slight improvement vs Q4 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth • Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015 • Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...

  • Singapore – Impact of MAS policy decision - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Tuesday 14 April 2015 at 10:00 SGT with: • David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia • Jeff Ng, SEA Economist • Divya Devesh, FX Strategist • Topics include: • Rati...

  • Philippines – What our clients think - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year • They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015 • Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...

  • China – SME index distorted by holiday effect - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • Asia – Breaking with the bearish view - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    After meeting clients around Asia and the US, we find the mood to be subdued but optimistic long-term • We are less bearish on China’s growth prospects due to property- and debt-related factors • Confusion reigns over monetary policy reaction fun...

  • Asia leverage – China’s debt/GDP ratio stabilises - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    • China’s q/q GDP growth is now in line with credit growth, ending the period of worsening debt/GDP ratios • China’s debt/GDP ratio may end 2015 flat versus mid-2014, a significant achievement • External debt is in focus for India, Indonesia and...

  • Asia macro trackers – Room for monetary easing - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    • The Philippines emerges as the best performer in Asia in Q4-2014 • Thailand’s growth tracker signals a pick-up in GDP from very soft levels; Indonesia’s GDP remains soft • Current account trackers are stronger than before ...

  • China – Our big real-estate developer survey - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    Our proprietary survey of 30 developers suggests that a mild recovery is on the horizon • Sales are slow and buyers remain cautious despite modest price cuts and discounts • However, respondents expect construction activity to accelerate this yea...

  • Vietnam – What Vietnamese clients think - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Our Vietnam-based clients are the most bullish in the region, according to our poll • They are most concerned about the local economy, followed by the EU and China • The majority see upside risks to USD-VND in 2015, in line with our view...

  • China cuts RRR 50bps, more broad easing to come - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    • Event • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) today announced a 50bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut effective from 5 February (equivalent to adding approximately CNY 570bn to the system). The PBoC introduced an additional targeted RRR cut of 5...

  • Indonesia – What Indonesian clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...

  • South Korea – What Korean clients think - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Korean clients have turned much more bearish on business prospects and the economic outlook in 2015 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • More than 70% of respondents expect the KRW to weaken vs. USD in 201...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • Malaysia – What Malaysian clients think - Updated Fri January 16, 2015

    Pessimists significantly outnumber optimists in our survey of Malaysian clients • Clients are most worried about Malaysia; however, cost is no longer a concern • Malaysian clients remain bearish on the MYR; their 2014 bearish call proved accurate...



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