We model and assess the impact of shocks originating in the US on 12 economies in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America
• We forecast a very tame US hiking cycle but what if the move is much more dramatic than expected
• We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
• The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...
• MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January
• GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses
• We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...
Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth
• Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015
• Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...
• You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Tuesday 14 April 2015 at 10:00 SGT with:
• David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia
• Jeff Ng, SEA Economist
• Divya Devesh, FX Strategist
• Topics include:
Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year
• They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015
• Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...
The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved
Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further
Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...
• We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views
• Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists
• Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...
After meeting clients around Asia and the US, we find the mood to be subdued but optimistic long-term
• We are less bearish on China’s growth prospects due to property- and debt-related factors
• Confusion reigns over monetary policy reaction fun...
• China’s q/q GDP growth is now in line with credit growth, ending the period of worsening debt/GDP ratios
• China’s debt/GDP ratio may end 2015 flat versus mid-2014, a significant achievement
• External debt is in focus for India, Indonesia and...
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