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  • Singapore – MAS in wait-and-see mode - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    • MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January • GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses • We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...

  • Singapore – Impact of MAS policy decision - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Tuesday 14 April 2015 at 10:00 SGT with: • David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia • Jeff Ng, SEA Economist • Divya Devesh, FX Strategist • Topics include: • Rati...

  • Philippines – What our clients think - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year • They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015 • Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • Vietnam – What Vietnamese clients think - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Our Vietnam-based clients are the most bullish in the region, according to our poll • They are most concerned about the local economy, followed by the EU and China • The majority see upside risks to USD-VND in 2015, in line with our view...

  • Indonesia – What Indonesian clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...

  • South Korea – What Korean clients think - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Korean clients have turned much more bearish on business prospects and the economic outlook in 2015 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • More than 70% of respondents expect the KRW to weaken vs. USD in 201...

  • Singapore – What Singapore clients think - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Singapore clients expect a better year in 2015, but the level of optimism is lower than in previous years • Europe tops the list of concerns; worries about the domestic economy have increased for 2015 • Clients remain bearish on SGD vs. USD; most ...

  • Thought Leadership Compendium - Updated Thu January 8, 2015

    Global trade – It’s only resting • Productivity – Increasingly critical as the demographic dividend fades • Inequality – Widening within, but narrowing between, countries • Financial inclusion – Its potential as a poverty fighter • ASEAN – G...

  • 08-Dec – It’s not what they do, it’s what they say - Updated Sun December 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • UK – Industrial production likely improved marginally in October • Germany – Trade surplus likely remained close to a record high • United States – Fed hawks have the upper hand after strong NFP data • Market focus • Polic...

  • What Korean and Japanese clients think - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness • Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming • Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...

  • China – PMI and the case for further policy easing - Updated Mon September 1, 2014

    • Official manufacturing PMI disappoints in August, at 51.1 versus 51.7 in July • The inventory cycle has moderated, while producer confidence remains upbeat for now • PMI signals that recovery is not yet solid; additional policy easing will be ne...

  • South Korea – Divergence in trade data - Updated Thu August 21, 2014

    A new methodology capturing Korea’s overseas activity is a key driver of the BoK’s stronger trade data • We believe this is a more significant driver than the change in the treatment of shipbuilding orders • We raise our current account surplus f...

  • South Korea – A rate cut to boost sentiment - Updated Tue July 22, 2014

    • Current economic trends and sentiment will likely receive more attention than headline economic figures • We expect a 25bps policy rate cut at the August MPC meeting • Hold KRW 5Y/10Y curve-steepening trade (entry: 20bps, current: 22bps; targe...

  • 22-Jul – Trip notes from Australia, New Zealand - Updated Mon July 21, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Housing and transport inflation likely cooled further • Taiwan – June IP data expected to show recovery is gaining speed • UK – BoE on hold, but more hawkish? • Market focus • Australian clients are neutral on ...

  • 01-Jul – The ECB’s rising importance for liquidity - Updated Mon June 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely remained mildly positive • Australia – We forecast further weakness in retail and external trade • United States – ISM manufacturing PMI likely advanced further in June • Market focus • We updated our...

  • 27-May – Trip notes: Europe, US client roadshow - Updated Mon May 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – April retail sales likely contracted after the sales tax hike • Singapore – Take profit on receive SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y • Thailand – The military considers measures to boost growth • Market focus • Investor mood and r...

  • Asia’s productivity: The new story - Updated Tue May 6, 2014

    Productivity, the rate of output (GDP) per unit of input (capital and labour), is a critical driver of sustainable economic growth and income. The perception that Asia is a low-productivity region is out of date. Since 2000, Asia’s productivity perf...

  • What Thai clients think - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    Clients in Bangkok are the most negative on growth among our Southeast Asian clients • Only one in five of those surveyed expect the political situation to worsen in H2-2014 versus H1 • Sentiment continues its three-year shift in favour of THB ...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...



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