We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content.
• Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...
We introduce our Global Monetary Conditions Index and provide sensitivity estimates to policy changes
• China has the fastest and highest M2 growth but global liquidity is dominated by the US
• Currently, USD 10bn created by the Fed adds USD 24bn ...
• The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...
We launch the Standard Chartered RGI, which tracks the Renminbi’s level of globalisation
• We also introduce our Offshore Renminbi Corporate Survey of local and global corporates
• As the CNY heads towards global reserve currency status, its broad...
Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...
Top 3 data/events
• China – A bleak month for the CNY
• Crude oil – Upside still likely
• United States – No fast progress on NFP
• Market focus
• Inflation expectations have been curtailed in light of the euro-area crisis
• Central banks in...
Top 3 key events and data
• Singapore – April PMI should move further into expansionary territory
• Philippines – CPI should tick marginally downwards
• US – Payrolls to remain anaemic
• ECB’s likely more dovish stance set to contr...
Top 3 key events and data
• Thailand – BoT is expected to keep rates on hold
• Euro area – Manufacturing PMI: no place to hide in the region, even not in Germany
• US – ISM manufacturing may have had a timid start to Q2
• US downsi...
Key events and data
• US FOMC meeting – Minutes to reveal more than the post-meeting statement
• India – Core inflation likely declined
• Korea – The labour market remains resilient
• We reiterate our call for a USD-CNY band wide...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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