After meeting clients around Asia and the US, we find the mood to be subdued but optimistic long-term
• We are less bearish on China’s growth prospects due to property- and debt-related factors
• Confusion reigns over monetary policy reaction fun...
Our proprietary survey of 30 developers suggests that a mild recovery is on the horizon
• Sales are slow and buyers remain cautious despite modest price cuts and discounts
• However, respondents expect construction activity to accelerate this yea...
We introduce the SMEI, our survey-based measure of activity and sentiment in China’s SME sector
• The August SMEI fell to 58.7 from 59.0, indicating difficult business conditions amid high financing costs
• The SMEI will help to gauge the economy’...
Asia’s leverage issues are confined to certain pockets and are not an across-the-board concern
• Asia’s productivity performance has been solid across the board since 2000
• It is not an 'importless' recovery in the West – we expect external dem...
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content.
• Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...
We introduce our Global Monetary Conditions Index and provide sensitivity estimates to policy changes
• China has the fastest and highest M2 growth but global liquidity is dominated by the US
• Currently, USD 10bn created by the Fed adds USD 24bn ...
• The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...
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