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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 10-Dec – Our currency, your problem - Updated Tue December 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Korea – BoK is expected to keep the base rate on hold • Indonesia – We expect the BI rate to be unchanged in December • The Philippines – BSP set to keep policy rates on hold • Market focus • USD strength in H1-2015; sign...

  • 10-Sep – USD-JPY is back in play - Updated Tue September 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely moderated in August • Philippines – BSP may tighten rates in September – a close call • Indonesia – BI likely to keep rates on hold in September • Market focus • USD-JPY is grinding higher on rate s...

  • 31-Jul – Fed policy: Boiling the frog - Updated Wed July 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Exports likely picked up, CPI inflation stayed benign • China – We expect a higher official PMI reading for July • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated on a m/m basis in July • Market focus • The FOMC del...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 30-Aug – EM reserve adequacy - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – August headline inflation likely slowed m/m, picked up y/y • South Korea – Headline inflation, exports likely continued to rise • US – Expected increase in Chicago PMI would bode well for ISM survey • Market foc...

  • IDR to fall further, but no currency crisis - Updated Tue August 27, 2013

    We raise sharply our USD-IDR forecasts through 2014 on the C/A deficit, over-valuation, reserves • Indonesia needs higher interest rates to stabilise the IDR; this is unlikely near-term • However, BI has enough FX reserves to manage worst-case cap...

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