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  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 30-Aug – EM reserve adequacy - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – August headline inflation likely slowed m/m, picked up y/y • South Korea – Headline inflation, exports likely continued to rise • US – Expected increase in Chicago PMI would bode well for ISM survey • Market foc...

  • IDR to fall further, but no currency crisis - Updated Tue August 27, 2013

    We raise sharply our USD-IDR forecasts through 2014 on the C/A deficit, over-valuation, reserves • Indonesia needs higher interest rates to stabilise the IDR; this is unlikely near-term • However, BI has enough FX reserves to manage worst-case cap...

  • 13-May – EM-21 reserve monitor: Bearish EUR, GBP - Updated Sun May 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI likely to keep rates unchanged at the May meeting • India – More good news on inflation • Germany – ZEW survey expected to reflect modest pickup in investor sentiment • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank rese...

  • 30-Apr – Waiting patiently for Mrs Watanabe - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – April PMI has the potential to disappoint • Indonesia – Expect moderating inflation, not deflation, in April • South Korea – Low inflation and a rebound in exports look likely • Market focus • We expect some degree ...

  • 10-Apr – The return of the great yen carry trade - Updated Tue April 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – March unemployment rate likely remained steady at 5.4% • Indonesia – BI expected to keep interest rates unchanged in April • South Korea – BoK is likely to cut policy rate based on fundamentals • Market focus • ...

  • 28-Feb-13 – On the road in the US - Updated Wed February 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely remained in expansionary territory • Indonesia – Inflation likely slowed in February on a m/m basis • South Korea – Modest export recovery expected • Market focus • We conducted a client ro...

  • 30-Nov-12 – Resistance is not always futile - Updated Thu November 29, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI to remain in expansionary territory • Indonesia – Slightly higher inflation and an improving trade surplus • Brazil – Taking profits on our BRL Jan-14 DI receiver • Market focus • AXJ currency appreciation appea...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.