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  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September • Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4 • We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon September 22, 2014

    Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors • Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release • Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...

  • Edible oils – An end to the sell-off is in sight - Updated Tue August 26, 2014

    Edible oil and oilseed prices have sold off in anticipation of continuing large surpluses in the market • Firm demand from China and smaller harvests in some markets to tighten global edible oil inventories • We mark to market our forecasts for CP...

  • Silk Road – China commodity trade - Updated Thu August 21, 2014

    • July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery • Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014 • Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...

  • Silent running - Updated Thu July 3, 2014

    • A time to position for (uneven) growth – The global recovery remains very uneven, and in the post-2008 world, the growth trajectory remains flatter (and longer) than in a conventional economic cycle. We expect the next phase of the global cycle to...

  • Crude palm oil: Africa’s burgeoning market - Updated Wed June 25, 2014

    Africa’s palm oil industry is on the cusp of monumental change. Rising urban populations and incomes, coupled with the transition from wet to modern markets, are boosting edible oil consumption in the region. Because of its affordability, palm oil a...

  • El Niño – Blowing hot and cold on food markets - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    • Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields • Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season • Such an event could elevate inflation ...

  • Crude palm oil – India’s consumption soars - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    • Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand • Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons • We expect tighter end-season inven...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Indian CPO refiners: Between a rock and a hard place - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Refined palm olein now accounts for half of India’s palm oil imports; a substantial shift from the norm • The spike in refined palm olein imports reflects deteriorating refining margins in India • Industry woes have been compounded by a weakening ...

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