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  • Crude palm oil – India’s consumption soars - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    • Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand • Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons • We expect tighter end-season inven...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Indian CPO refiners: Between a rock and a hard place - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Refined palm olein now accounts for half of India’s palm oil imports; a substantial shift from the norm • The spike in refined palm olein imports reflects deteriorating refining margins in India • Industry woes have been compounded by a weakening ...

  • Crude palm oil – Asia’s buying spree - Updated Mon June 10, 2013

    • Palm oil prices break above MYR 2,400/t to their highest level since March • Prices are supported by lower SE Asian inventories, a weaker MYR and robust Asian demand • We revise our CPO forecast lower but remain bullish for the remainder of the ...

  • CPO – Buy the dip - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    • The CPO market has dropped sharply in recent weeks amid mounting concerns over sluggish demand • We argue that the slide in prices is overdone and is amplified by lack of clarity on key industry events • We recommend that investors buy into th...

  • Commodity Vector Portfolio - Updated Wed July 4, 2012

    • We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication • New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...

  • Agriculture – US weather sets a price floor - Updated Tue June 26, 2012

    US weather risks fuel a turnaround in market sentiment • Conflicting dynamics in grain markets set the scene for continuing price turbulence • We expect agricultural commodity markets to regain some bullish momentum in Q3-2012...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.