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  • 25-Mar – Reading SARB signals - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Singapore – We expect IP to have contracted in January-February • Euro area – Pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February • Market focus • We ...

  • 17-Mar – Further SSA currency weakness likely - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade data likely disappointed in February • Malaysia – We expect inflation to have slowed further in February • UK – We expect unanimous MPC and robust labour-market data • Market focus • USD-NGN is likely to adjus...

  • 16-Mar – BoJ will likely move in April not March - Updated Sun March 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - We expect modest NODX growth in January-February • Turkey – CBRT will likely keep rates unchanged • South Africa – C/A deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability • Market focus • We expect no BoJ easing at the 16...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • 17-Feb – The Asian central bank road-show - Updated Mon February 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put at the February meeting • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain benign for now • Ghana – MPC expected to leave interest rates unchanged • Market focus • Asian central banks remain constructive...

  • 28-Jan – ‘Patient’ Fed watches the data - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ expected to keep cash rate unchanged at 3.50% • Philippines – Q4 GDP growth rebound expected after disappointing Q3 • South Africa – MPC to clarify tightening intent • Market focus • We expect little chan...

  • 15-Dec – Fed: Considerably patient - Updated Sun December 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - NODX expansion expected due to favourable base effect • Euro area – December PMI will likely improve marginally • Nigeria – November CPI likely to reflect FX weakness • Market focus • We think the Fed will repla...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 24-Nov – CBN response is key to NGN stability - Updated Sun November 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Final Q3 GDP may be revised slightly higher • Philippines – Trade balance to remain neutral on subdued imports • Hong Kong – October exports to reflect lingering external headwinds • Market focus • CBN MPC meeti...

  • 19-Nov – SARB to stay on hold - Updated Tue November 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Tech orders likely surged ahead of holiday sales season • Japan – Exports likely slowed in October on unfavourable base effects • Euro area – PMI will likely deteriorate slightly • Market focus • Lower oil price, mo...

  • 11-Nov – BoE set to signal no rate hike until H2-2015 - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Offshore RMB market gets a boost • India – IP likely slowed in September; October CPI likely moderated • Ghana – Tightening, but format is uncertain • Market focus • We expect the BoE to lower its UK growth and ...

  • Nigeria – Policy changes - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    Central Bank of Nigeria announces changes to its Standing Deposit Facility • SDF deposits by institutions in excess of NGN 7.5bn will no longer be remunerated • More categories of FX demand are excluded from the official RDAS window • Short-dated...

  • 20-Oct – China’s GDP growth likely slowed in Q3 - Updated Sun October 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – September’s inflation likely distorted by rent concession • UK – Public borrowing may have been higher in September • South Africa –Medium-term Budget in Focus • Market focus • GDP growth is expected to have mo...

  • 23-Sep – Revisiting our African FX forecasts - Updated Mon September 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Inflation likely slowed further in September • Germany – We expect September IFO to show a slight improvement • US – August new-home sales likely improved modestly • Market focus • Idiosyncratic and external fact...

  • 19-Sep – China: PBoC faces an easing dilemma - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Central bank expected to keep interest rates on hold • Taiwan – Rising export orders likely boosted employment, confidence • EM FX – New ZAR, TRY forecasts, going Underweight short-term ZAR • Market focus • The P...

  • 18-Sep – Scotland referendum: Trading like it’s 1992 - Updated Wed September 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PBoC launches major SLF liquidity injection • United States – A still-dovish Fed, but cracks are appearing • South Africa – Weak GDP outlook to keep SARB on hold in September • Market focus • The Scotland referend...

  • 17-Sep – Expectations for FOMC: Too far too fast? - Updated Tue September 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect another 25bps hike • Euro area – We expect September TLTRO take-up of EUR 125-150bn • Ghana – BoG likely to pause tightening cycle at September MPC • Market focus • FOMC meeting: A moderately more hawki...

  • 20-Aug – Fed: Wait a minute - Updated Tue August 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation when distortion is removed • South Africa – Inflation expected to decelerate y/y • Euro area – PMIs likely to inch lower • Market focus • FOMC minutes may be more hawkish than the statement due...

  • 21-Jul – AXJ impact if Ukraine crisis escalates - Updated Sun July 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Inflation likely edged up, but mildly, to 3.0% y/y in Q2 • Nigeria – CBN expected to keep interest rates on hold • United States – July CPI should remain firm, but it is still ‘noisy’ • Market focus • If Ukrain...

  • 16-Jul – Yellen puts on her favourite song again - Updated Tue July 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – June NODX was likely weak, weighed down by electronics • South Africa – SARB decision a very close call • United Kingdom – Labour market to show further improvement • Market focus • ‘Steady as she goes‘ theme co...



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25-Mar – Reading SARB signals

Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Singapore – We expect IP to have contracted in January-February • Euro area – Pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February • Market focus • We expect the SARB to leave the repo rate...

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