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  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • South Africa – Some positives from the budget - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    We give our initial reaction to the budget – there are some positives for local markets • The Treasury targets faster fiscal consolidation for the current year and the medium term • Delivery risk will be linked both to the external environment a...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • 27-Nov – Fine-tuning our G10 FX and Africa forecasts - Updated Tue November 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q3 • Africa – Adjusting some of our FX and rates forecasts • Brazil – COPOM to deliver another 50bps hike; minutes are in focus • Market focus • We are adjusting selected ...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...

  • 18-Nov – The Plenum delivered! - Updated Sun November 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes to reflect its cautious view • Turkey – CBRT set to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.5% • Ghana – Pace of fiscal consolidation will be closely watched • Market focus • China rolls out biggest econo...

  • 21-Oct – And now the data deluge - Updated Sun October 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q3 inflation was likely still benign at 1.8% y/y • Singapore – Inflation pulled lower by high base, FX appreciation • South Africa – Medium Term Budget in focus • Market focus • September payrolls will be releas...

  • Nigeria – Economic implications of PDP’s split - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Political developments in Nigeria increase near-term uncertainty • With politics taking centre-stage earlier than expected, there are upside risks to outlined spending plans • Any threat to the PDP’s majority in the National Assembly could poten...

  • Kenya – Above-trend growth still in sight - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient • Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed • Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target • Higher headli...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • South Africa – Risk of a rate cut recedes - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • We lower our 2013 South Africa growth forecast to 2%, amid signs of a slowdown in consumption • Despite a wider negative output gap, we see receding risks of a further rate cut in this cycle • The SARB will be constrained by deteriorating inflat...

  • Ghana – The long road to fiscal consolidation - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Slower H1 GDP suggests that last year’s public-sector wage hikes did not have a lasting impact on growth • Utility and fuel price adjustments are encouraging, but a large debt service burden and weak budget flexibility will curb pro-growth spendi...

  • 23-Sep – India – The RBI’s hawkish twist - Updated Sun September 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Business optimum persists in the run-up to the election • Nigeria – FX policy in focus at MPC meeting • US – Consumer confidence likely eroded; home prices on the rise • Market focus • Hawkish RBI is likely to inc...

  • 18-Sep – India: RBI to stay cautious - Updated Tue September 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – August imports likely offset export gains • New Zealand – Q2 growth was likely muted at 0.2% q/q • South Africa – SARB forecasts in focus • Market focus • Marginal tweaking of liquidity-tightening measures is possi...

  • 26-Aug – Implications of a decline in FX reserves - Updated Sun August 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – Q2 GDP likely to show recovery, output gap persists • Germany – Survey data point to an ongoing recovery • US – Core durable goods orders likely picked up in July • Market focus • Reserve managers have been ...

  • 30-Jul – The tipping point - Updated Mon July 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Q2 GDP data should show a more rapidly expanding economy • Ghana – Prime rate on hold, other measures watched • Switzerland – Another rise in KOF index reflects consumption strength • Market focus • This week’s FO...



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02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations

Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely continue to blame low inflation on energy...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.