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  • 18-Nov – The Plenum delivered! - Updated Sun November 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes to reflect its cautious view • Turkey – CBRT set to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.5% • Ghana – Pace of fiscal consolidation will be closely watched • Market focus • China rolls out biggest econo...

  • The Renminbi’s 2020 odyssey - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Taiwan joins the RGI - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We add Taiwan to our RGI, in recognition of its rapid emergence as a key offshore Renminbi centre • Taiwan has plenty of room to grow, building on its early success in Renminbi deposit accumulation • Our RGI hit 1,112 in July, up 65% y/y, reflect...

  • China – Lowering our 2013-14 CPI inflation forecasts - Updated Wed August 21, 2013

    • We revise down our CPI inflation forecasts to 2.5% for 2013 (from 2.8%), and to 3% for 2014 (from 4.1%) • We expect no change in the benchmark interest rate before end-2014 • We expect the benign inflation environment to allow for further inter...

  • 16-Jul – China is still slowing - Updated Mon July 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – June minutes to shed more light on the board’s policy stance • Malaysia – Inflation to rise but remain at modest levels • UK – BoE minutes will throw more light on ‘forward guidance’ • Market focus • We revise down...

  • 11-Jul – China slowing overshadows AXJ FX - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Higher CPI, weaker IIP probably weighed on sentiment • Japan – BoJ likely to lift economic assessment, partly on improving IP • Euro area – Industrial production likely to have fallen in May • Market focus • China’s...

  • 26-Jun – PBoC tones down a bit - Updated Tue June 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS to auction SGD 1.8bn of 10Y SGS on 26 June • Taiwan – CBC likely to keep rates on hold for eighth straight quarter • United States – MBA mortgage data could be affected by rising yields • Market focus • Chin...

  • China – Doctor Li Keqiang’s surgery - Updated Fri June 21, 2013

    • New government appears willing to accept short-term pain for long-term gains • People’s Bank is signalling that banks need to better manage their liquidity, slow WMP issuance • If sustained, tighter interbank liquidity will feed through to a bro...

  • 31-May – Behind the IMF rhetoric on CNY valuation - Updated Thu May 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Headline inflation likely remained very low • Thailand – Inflation is expected to have remained benign • Indonesia – Inflation was likely low in May • Market focus • Cumulative gain in the CNY’s real trade-we...

  • 14-May – CNY to Neutral from Overweight - Updated Mon May 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Q1 GDP to show 6th successive quarterly contraction • Malaysia – Domestically supported GDP growth expected for Q1 • Philippines – Remittance inflows likely accelerated in March • Market focus • USD strength a...

  • New SAFE rules: Less than meets the eye - Updated Tue May 7, 2013

    • SAFE created a new mechanism to regulate bank NOPs by linking bank FX LDR ratios with the NOP floor • The aggregate necessary increase in NOP is estimated at USD 23bn, a relatively small amount in our view • Stricter scrutiny of trade invoices ...

  • 30-Apr – Waiting patiently for Mrs Watanabe - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – April PMI has the potential to disappoint • Indonesia – Expect moderating inflation, not deflation, in April • South Korea – Low inflation and a rebound in exports look likely • Market focus • We expect some degree ...

  • 26-Apr – Not yet a ‘market-determined’ CNY - Updated Thu April 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Italy – Political climate easing but BTP rally runs out of steam • Latam – Rates on hold in Mexico and Colombia • United States – Q1 GDP growth was likely solid, but Q2 will be softer • Market focus • China recorded a healt...

  • 08-Apr – USD's swoon may be short - Updated Sun April 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CPI inflation slowed in February, but should rise later in 2013 • Germany – Exports likely weakened, although by less than consensus • UK – Production data is likely better, if not largely improved • Market focus • ...

  • 05-Mar – Is China slowing again? - Updated Mon March 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q4 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.4% q/q • India – RBI can support government’s INR 500bn debt-switch plan • Euro area – Confirmation of a deeper Q4 recession • Market focus • The disappointing PMIs...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.