• We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility
• The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch
• We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...
Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term
• Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further
• Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...
• This supersedes the version dated 21 March 2014. Page 1, third paragraph, corrects the policy rate.
• Bank of Zambia tightens policy further, raising rate on overnight lending facility with immediate effect
• Earlier regulation suspending FX b...
• USD-PKR has rallied 10% to 99 since end-2013 on FX aid flows, improving sentiment
• However, fundamentals are weak - the trade deficit is widening, FX reserves are below comfort levels
• Short-term gains to persist; we forecast PKR at 98 by Ju...
• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
• Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook
• We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016
• The BoJ surprised the market by expanding its current loan-support programme
• We do not think the BoJ is likely to roll out any fresh easing in the near term
• Reform implementation remains critical for Japan’s revival...
• Top 3 data/events
• Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January
• UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7%
• South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus
• Market focus
• Credit growth was...
• We investigate volatility slopes for EUR-USD, GBP-USD, EUR-JPY and USD-JPY
• We find similar statistical profiles and mean-reverting properties across currency pairs
• We find that on average the volatility slopes considered for these pairs mean...
The BoE drops its unemployment threshold and is now focusing on spare capacity and productivity
• Economic slack could be eliminated by early 2015, with unemployment reaching equilibrium by late 2014
• We revise up our 2014-15 GDP forecast, cut 20...
• FM is likely to meet the FY14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP, project a FY15 deficit at 4.2%
• Spending cuts, higher non-tax revenues will allow adherence to the fiscal consolidation plan
• Gross borrowing likely to be c.INR 5.8-6.0tn; w...
Market turmoil has underpinned the USD and the upward slope in USD-CNY NDFs
• The USD-CNY 12M outright in the NDFs is some way above the USD in the 12M deliverable forwards
• We expect CNY appreciation to be extended in 2014; there may be scope f...
The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth
• In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior
• Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...
• Our Indonesian clients are slightly more optimistic this year on business prospects
• Our survey results suggest that sustaining revenue growth remains the key challenge
• Indonesian clients are bearish on their local currency vs. USD in 2014,...
• Fewer corporates expect growth to accelerate in 2014 from the pace seen in 2013
• Sustaining revenue growth is corporates’ main concern, far outweighing worries over rising costs
• Corporates are bearish on the SGD vs. USD; looking to partly hed...
Time may be running short for EUR-USD to fall as underlying fundamentals grow increasingly balanced
• We remain committed USD bulls, however, so we still expect a EUR-USD move lower in H1
• Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 3M 25/10-delta EUR-U...
• We expect GDP growth to rebound to 3.9% y/y in 2014 from 2.2% in 2013
• We expect inflation to rise to 1.7% y/y in 2014 from 0.8% in 2013
• Policy makers are likely to keep the benchmark rate on hold in March, resume hikes in June 2014
• We rai...
• The optimists still outnumber the pessimists in Malaysia, but are fewer than in 2013
• ‘Managing costs’ is the number one challenge, according to our survey
• Malaysian clients are bearish on the MYR and plan to partially hedge 2014 FX exposure...
Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally
• Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes
• Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...
• The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD
• The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty
• Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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