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  • Saudi Arabia – Why reserves dropped and where they went - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    • Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves dropped by USD 20bn in February 2015 • Although some attribute the drop to budget financing, we disagree • We think the government has better options to finance its budget than by liquidating FX reserves • The drop in...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-JPY buyers in April • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-KRW sellers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • SC...

  • USD – Paying Uncle Sam - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • Closing the tax loophole on foreign earnings is at the centre of the current US tax-reform debate • Obama’s tax proposal would result in limited tax revenue, but significant corporate repatriation to the US • In FX markets, the USD would be supp...

  • Korea – No more cuts as signs of recovery emerge - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    • Benefits of previous rate cuts are emerging – housing market is picking up, KOSPI is rallying, credit is increasing and policy makers are becoming less dovish • We maintain our view of no rate change this year • We maintain our Neutral outlook o...

  • Taiwan – CBC to keep rates on hold in 2015 - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    • Data indicates continued economic recovery; strong industrial data offset weak export growth in Feb-Mar • We lower our 2015 inflation forecast to 0.4% y/y (from 0.8%) and raise our 2016 forecast to 1.8% (1.4%) • We think the CBC will keep the po...

  • Indian importers – Buy USD-INR funded call spreads - Updated Thu April 2, 2015

    We see upside risks to USD-INR in the short term ahead of a likely first Fed rate hike in Q3 • Strong inflows in Q1 have resulted in major positioning risk, while Q2 seasonals are less favourable • RBI is likely to continue intervening to limit ex...

  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • Sell USD-CNH 3Mx12M DF - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...

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