• We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views
• Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists
• Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...
• We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices
• We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75%
• We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...
We recommend selling AUD-USD in the FX Trading Portfolio
• Entry: 0.7660; target: 0.6800; stop-loss: 0.8000
• Rate differentials and commodity prices suggest lower levels versus the USD...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
US labour report represents an inflection point
• The US diverges again from the rest of the world
• Rotation remains key to the USD rally; stay long USD-JPY, targeting 126
• Keep an eye on gold...
US economic data has been mixed of late
• Markets look for payroll strength and improvement in wages
• The USD remains supported by rate differentials...
• … and improving sentiment in fixed income and equity markets...
• Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014
• Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies
• Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...
We use the early-year weakness in EUR-USD and GBP-USD to take profits
• These actions represent tactical risk management decisions, not a change in view
• We retain our medium-term forecasts for lower EUR-USD and GBP-USD...
• The USD rally, driven by divergence, is looking increasingly like that of the second half of the 1990s
• The Fed’s measures for the USD TWI suggest valuation remains favourable and it may have further to go
• However, there are important differe...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
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