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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for USD-KRW, JPY-KRW - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR SCTF ...

  • Investors stay cautious on FX and rates - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    Clients in the US and Europe struggle with FX volatility and zero yields • US dollar positioning fails to keep pace • Zero yields pose a challenge to investors • Sentiment is cautious towards China, positive towards India • We remain long the...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • Indonesia – Revising our forecasts - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    • We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices • We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75% • We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...

  • Sell AUD-USD - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    We recommend selling AUD-USD in the FX Trading Portfolio • Entry: 0.7660; target: 0.6800; stop-loss: 0.8000 • Rate differentials and commodity prices suggest lower levels versus the USD...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • Cross-asset strategy – Post-payroll update - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    US labour report represents an inflection point • The US diverges again from the rest of the world • Rotation remains key to the USD rally; stay long USD-JPY, targeting 126 • Keep an eye on gold...

  • Cross-asset strategy – Ode to payrolls - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    US economic data has been mixed of late • Markets look for payroll strength and improvement in wages • The USD remains supported by rate differentials... • … and improving sentiment in fixed income and equity markets...

  • Indonesia – What Indonesian clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Our Indonesian clients are more optimistic about business prospects this year than in 2014 • Clients are more concerned about the domestic economy than other economies • Most clients expect Bank Indonesia to either maintain or hike the BI rate i...

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