We see upside risks to USD-INR in the short term ahead of a likely first Fed rate hike in Q3
• Strong inflows in Q1 have resulted in major positioning risk, while Q2 seasonals are less favourable
• RBI is likely to continue intervening to limit ex...
This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment.
Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February
Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...
We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio
We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting
We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...
The USD has experienced a healthy correction on positioning and over-reaction to the FOMC
• A careful assessment of Fed comments on the USD shows they are relatively balanced
• The fundamental drivers of USD strength remain in place, while valuati...
• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February
Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB
Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR
Clients in the US and Europe struggle with FX volatility and zero yields
• US dollar positioning fails to keep pace
• Zero yields pose a challenge to investors
• Sentiment is cautious towards China, positive towards India
• We remain long the...
• We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views
• Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists
• Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...
• We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices
• We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75%
• We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...
We recommend selling AUD-USD in the FX Trading Portfolio
• Entry: 0.7660; target: 0.6800; stop-loss: 0.8000
• Rate differentials and commodity prices suggest lower levels versus the USD...
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