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  • Indian importers – Buy USD-INR funded call spreads - Updated Thu April 2, 2015

    We see upside risks to USD-INR in the short term ahead of a likely first Fed rate hike in Q3 • Strong inflows in Q1 have resulted in major positioning risk, while Q2 seasonals are less favourable • RBI is likely to continue intervening to limit ex...

  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • Sell USD-CNH 3Mx12M DF - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for USD-KRW, JPY-KRW - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR SCTF ...

  • Investors stay cautious on FX and rates - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    Clients in the US and Europe struggle with FX volatility and zero yields • US dollar positioning fails to keep pace • Zero yields pose a challenge to investors • Sentiment is cautious towards China, positive towards India • We remain long the...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • Indonesia – Revising our forecasts - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    • We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices • We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75% • We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...

  • Sell AUD-USD - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    We recommend selling AUD-USD in the FX Trading Portfolio • Entry: 0.7660; target: 0.6800; stop-loss: 0.8000 • Rate differentials and commodity prices suggest lower levels versus the USD...

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