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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • India – RBI adopts a wait-and-watch stance - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 7.75%, makes further action contingent on upcoming data • We expect another 25bps inter-meeting cut in March on benign inflation, further fiscal consolidation • We remain positive on IGBs; recommend short- and me...

  • India – RBI delivers an inter-meeting rate cut - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Event – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a 25bps rate cut today, cutting the repo rate to 7.75% and the reverse repo rate to 6.75%, before its scheduled policy meeting on 3 February. A significant slowdown in inflation momentum (December CP...

  • India – Looking ahead to 2015 - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts • Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts • We expect most of the government’s recentl...

  • India – Silent but powerful reforms - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    • We review the NDA government’s policy actions as it nears the end of its first six months • The pace of decision-making has picked up, though ‘big-bang’ reforms are delayed • ‘Silent’ reforms to improve the ease of doing business are importan...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

  • India – Limited constraints on RBI intervention - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    The RBI has intervened substantially in the FX market to absorb capital inflows and limit volatility • Concerns are that excess INR liquidity will be created and the RBI will incur quasi-fiscal costs • We estimate that the RBI can intervene c.USD ...

  • India - Respecting the red line - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    • FM is likely to meet the FY14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP, project a FY15 deficit at 4.2% • Spending cuts, higher non-tax revenues will allow adherence to the fiscal consolidation plan • Gross borrowing likely to be c.INR 5.8-6.0tn; w...

  • India – Hawkish RBI in action - Updated Fri September 20, 2013

    • RBI unexpectedly hikes the repo rate to contain inflation; we expect another 50bps of hikes in Q3-FY14 • Despite our higher inflation forecasts, more easing of liquidity conditions is likely, including a 50bps reduction in the MSF • We expect th...

  • India – RBI unexpectedly hikes repo rate - Updated Fri September 20, 2013

    Event – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the market today by hiking the repo rate by 25bps to 7.50%. Although a reduction in the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate by 75bps to 9.50%, and a marginal relaxation in the minimum daily mainte...

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