• FM is likely to meet the FY14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP, project a FY15 deficit at 4.2%
• Spending cuts, higher non-tax revenues will allow adherence to the fiscal consolidation plan
• Gross borrowing likely to be c.INR 5.8-6.0tn; w...
• RBI unexpectedly hikes the repo rate to contain inflation; we expect another 50bps of hikes in Q3-FY14
• Despite our higher inflation forecasts, more easing of liquidity conditions is likely, including a 50bps reduction in the MSF
• We expect th...
Event – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the market today by hiking the repo rate by 25bps to 7.50%. Although a reduction in the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate by 75bps to 9.50%, and a marginal relaxation in the minimum daily mainte...
• RBI’s Rajan to stay focused on inflation; major announcement likely to be deferred
• Marginal tweaking of liquidity-tightening measures likely to support market sentiment
• Rates market is positioned light; stay Neutral on GoISec duration
FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs
• Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed
• Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...
Finance minister expects USD 11bn of incremental inflows in FY14 once new measures are implemented
• Fresh inflows should help the external sector, but limited details on these measures keep us cautious
• We stay Neutral on the INR and expect a sh...
• RBI leaves policy rates unchanged; a dovish policy statement focuses on currency stability
• Reversal of liquidity-tightening measures and a return to monetary policy easing depends on INR stability
• Presses for urgent action to reduce C/A def...
RBI takes strong steps to tighten INR liquidity, reversing its recent monetary-easing stance
• Decisive action could lead to a short-term rebound in the INR, but more measures are needed to tackle structural challenges
• Rates market sentiment lik...
• Weaker INR could reverse some recent improvements in India’s macroeconomic conditions
• Inflation, fiscal deficit may worsen; positive C/A impact is unlikely, and capital flows may slow
• Kick-starting the investment cycle is crucial, as other ...
FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA
• This supersedes the version dated 21 June 2013. Page 1, corrects recommendation for Indian importers.
• USD-INR is likely to extend gains into early Q3 on Fed QE tapering concerns, capital outflows
• We look for a par...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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