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  • Taiwan – On a stronger footing - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Asia overview – After the portfolio storm - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Concerns about a growth slowdown in Asia triggered by recent portfolio outflows are overblown, in our view. We stated this view in On the Ground, 28 August 2013, Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’. We expect growth in most countries in the regi...

  • Japan – Building growth momentum - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Confidence in Japan‟s recovery is critical to its success. Short-term market sentiment has been well supported by policy stimulus so far. Japan‟s 2013 growth is on track to outpace that of the US, having done so by a wide margin in H1-2013. We doubt...

  • South Korea – External sector to the rescue - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The boost to Korea‟s economy from improving export growth is not yet feeding into stronger domestic activity. We expect this improvement to materialise by Q4-2013, allowing Korea to break out of its recent pattern of weakening growth in H2 versus H1...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • 17-Jun – Taper tantrums and the Bernanke straddle - Updated Sun June 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Growth strategy is not impressive so far • UK – Above-target inflation to persist, with near-term upside pressure • Germany – ZEW set to show unspectacular investor sentiment recovery • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 11-Jun – EM-21 reserve monitor: USD-bullish - Updated Mon June 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely corrected from March’s jump • India – April IIP likely stayed lacklustre • Euro area – German and French recovery set to lift regionwide April IP • Market focus • In May, EM-21 central ...

  • Asia – Outperforming - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Not too hot and not too cold – this is the best way to describe Asia’s growth in 2013. • Support for growth is coming from many sources: increased confidence, domestic spending and intra-regional trade. • Although growth could be even stronger, ...

  • Japan – A long way to go - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    We remain conservative on Japan, despite tentative signs of recovery • Unprecedented monetary easing is expected to raise growth • Upper house election and growth strategy will be next areas of focus...

  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...

  • Asia Focus - Transforming, rebalancing, outperforming - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    • The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...

  • Scaling up in the Year of the Snake - Updated Mon January 21, 2013

    • Our Renminbi Globalisation Index (RGI) has hit a new high, with progress across CNH deposits, Dim Sum bond issuance and CNY trade settlement volumes. Hong Kong’s CNH liquidity conditions have improved, and we look for deposits to exceed CNY 700bn ...

  • Japan – The LDP returns - Updated Mon December 17, 2012

    The LDP/Komeito coalition wins a two-thirds super-majority in the lower house election • We expect the BoJ to expand its Asset Purchase Program • We are structural JPY bears, looking for 84.00 in mid-2013, 87.00 at year-end...

  • South Korea – Themes mask party differences - Updated Wed December 12, 2012

    • Conservative Park and liberal Moon are still neck and neck, though Park has a slight lead in the polls • Their pledges on economic policies are similar, emphasising ‘economic democracy’, jobs and welfare • Moon’s DUP proposes a Tobin tax, though...

  • South Korea –Disparity in housing market - Updated Tue July 31, 2012

    • The weakness in the Seoul metropolitan area housing market began in 2008 • The non-Seoul housing market has been strong since 2009, but we now see signs of a slowdown • Housing market weakness in Seoul and the non-Seoul area will be negative for...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...

  • 09-May-12 – Picking up the pace in China - Updated Tue May 8, 2012

    Key events and data • Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold • Philippines – Export growth to remain positive • South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged Market focus • China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...

  • Japan – Still struggling - Updated Fri April 27, 2012

    • Trade deficit and energy shortage will restrain Japan’s recovery in 2012 • More monetary easing is expected to shore up the economy • Post-earthquake reconstruction is expected to accelerate in 2013...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.