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  • Taiwan – On a stronger footing - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Asia overview – After the portfolio storm - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Concerns about a growth slowdown in Asia triggered by recent portfolio outflows are overblown, in our view. We stated this view in On the Ground, 28 August 2013, Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’. We expect growth in most countries in the regi...

  • Japan – Building growth momentum - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Confidence in Japan‟s recovery is critical to its success. Short-term market sentiment has been well supported by policy stimulus so far. Japan‟s 2013 growth is on track to outpace that of the US, having done so by a wide margin in H1-2013. We doubt...

  • South Korea – External sector to the rescue - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The boost to Korea‟s economy from improving export growth is not yet feeding into stronger domestic activity. We expect this improvement to materialise by Q4-2013, allowing Korea to break out of its recent pattern of weakening growth in H2 versus H1...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • 17-Jun – Taper tantrums and the Bernanke straddle - Updated Sun June 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Growth strategy is not impressive so far • UK – Above-target inflation to persist, with near-term upside pressure • Germany – ZEW set to show unspectacular investor sentiment recovery • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 11-Jun – EM-21 reserve monitor: USD-bullish - Updated Mon June 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely corrected from March’s jump • India – April IIP likely stayed lacklustre • Euro area – German and French recovery set to lift regionwide April IP • Market focus • In May, EM-21 central ...

  • Asia – Outperforming - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Not too hot and not too cold – this is the best way to describe Asia’s growth in 2013. • Support for growth is coming from many sources: increased confidence, domestic spending and intra-regional trade. • Although growth could be even stronger, ...

  • Japan – A long way to go - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    We remain conservative on Japan, despite tentative signs of recovery • Unprecedented monetary easing is expected to raise growth • Upper house election and growth strategy will be next areas of focus...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.