• Data indicates continued economic recovery; strong industrial data offset weak export growth in Feb-Mar
• We lower our 2015 inflation forecast to 0.4% y/y (from 0.8%) and raise our 2016 forecast to 1.8% (1.4%)
• We think the CBC will keep the po...
• BoK cuts the base rate to a record-low 1.75%, against consensus
• We expect no further easing this year
• We recommend Underweight short-term FX weighting on the KRW and Neutral on KTB duration
• RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum
• We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015
• Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
We expect the oil-price decline to have little impact on Vietnam’s trade sector; inflation likely to stay low
• The rise of higher-value-added industries should support Vietnam’s growth in the long run
• We see further upside risks to USD-VND in ...
Top 3 data/events
• Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in November
• Japan – Machinery orders likely continued to grow m/m
• South Korea – BoK likely to hold the base rate steady at its MPC meeting
• Market focus
• We expect Chi...
Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher
The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook
Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...
• RGI rose 5.9% m/m in December, bringing 2013 increase to 84%; deposit growth is the key driver
• We expect RGI to reach 2,200 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.15-1.20tn by end-2014
• Dim Sum bonds enjoy a strong start to 2014;...
In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....
Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...
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