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  • Offshore RMB – A galloping year ahead for the RGI - Updated Fri February 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 5.9% m/m in December, bringing 2013 increase to 84%; deposit growth is the key driver • We expect RGI to reach 2,200 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.15-1.20tn by end-2014 • Dim Sum bonds enjoy a strong start to 2014;...

  • The Renminbi’s 2020 odyssey - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....

  • Taiwan – On a stronger footing - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Hong Kong – Fewer headwinds, more tailwinds - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Hong Kong has weathered plenty of external headwinds over the past quarter. They include China’s late-June liquidity squeeze, which exacerbated worries about its growth, and rising concerns about Fed tapering, which caused significant sell-offs in s...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • China – Realism versus optimism - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    July data was generally positive, showing improved growth in trade, IP and FAI • Beijing is becoming more supportive of growth, but controls on local government investment stay tight • Improved data suggests that broad-based policy easing such as...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Taiwan – H2 outlook for FX and rates - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    We expect a further pick-up in domestic economic activity in H2 and a positive tech-sector outlook • USD-TWD is likely to consolidate in Q3 on TWD NEER, weaker seasonality and a stronger USD outlook • We maintain Neutral short-term and Overweight...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.