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  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • Offshore RMB – A galloping year ahead for the RGI - Updated Fri February 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 5.9% m/m in December, bringing 2013 increase to 84%; deposit growth is the key driver • We expect RGI to reach 2,200 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.15-1.20tn by end-2014 • Dim Sum bonds enjoy a strong start to 2014;...

  • The Renminbi’s 2020 odyssey - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....

  • Taiwan – On a stronger footing - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • Hong Kong – Fewer headwinds, more tailwinds - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Hong Kong has weathered plenty of external headwinds over the past quarter. They include China’s late-June liquidity squeeze, which exacerbated worries about its growth, and rising concerns about Fed tapering, which caused significant sell-offs in s...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • China – Realism versus optimism - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    July data was generally positive, showing improved growth in trade, IP and FAI • Beijing is becoming more supportive of growth, but controls on local government investment stay tight • Improved data suggests that broad-based policy easing such as...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Taiwan – H2 outlook for FX and rates - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    We expect a further pick-up in domestic economic activity in H2 and a positive tech-sector outlook • USD-TWD is likely to consolidate in Q3 on TWD NEER, weaker seasonality and a stronger USD outlook • We maintain Neutral short-term and Overweight...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • RGI – The CNH juggernaut rolls on - Updated Mon April 8, 2013

    RGI rose 64.5% y/y in February, the fastest gain since August 2012, led by CNH deposits • Demand for Dim Sum bonds appears well supported as a wider range of investors enters the market • We maintain our view of CNY appreciation against the USD, ...

  • Asia Focus - Transforming, rebalancing, outperforming - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    • The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...

  • Taiwan – Outlook for the Year of the Snake [Correction] - Updated Mon March 11, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 11 March 2013. Corrects government’s 2013 growth forecast to 3.59%. • The government has raised 2013 GDP growth to 3.59% y/y; recent data suggests an improving outlook • Tech-sector recovery will boost capex and ...

  • Taiwan – Outlook for the Year of the Snake - Updated Mon March 11, 2013

    The government has raised 2013 GDP growth to 3.53% y/y; recent data suggests an improving outlook • Tech-sector recovery will boost capex and hiring; concerns over a weaker JPY are rising • Further liberalisation of cross-straits tourism is likely...

  • CNH – RGI starts 2013 strongly - Updated Thu March 7, 2013

    RGI rose 8.2% m/m in January, the fastest since the inclusion of Singapore and London in H2-2011 • We believe this sets a strong positive tone for more broad-based RGI expansion throughout 2013 • Cross-border Renminbi payments surged, while Taipei...

  • Scaling up in the Year of the Snake - Updated Mon January 21, 2013

    • Our Renminbi Globalisation Index (RGI) has hit a new high, with progress across CNH deposits, Dim Sum bond issuance and CNY trade settlement volumes. Hong Kong’s CNH liquidity conditions have improved, and we look for deposits to exceed CNY 700bn ...

  • South Korea – Themes mask party differences - Updated Wed December 12, 2012

    • Conservative Park and liberal Moon are still neck and neck, though Park has a slight lead in the polls • Their pledges on economic policies are similar, emphasising ‘economic democracy’, jobs and welfare • Moon’s DUP proposes a Tobin tax, though...

  • Up, up and away - Updated Sun October 7, 2012

    • Use of the Renminbi as a trade settlement currency is on the rise around the world. In July-August, 12.3% of China’s trade was settled in CNY, up from 10.7% in the first half of the year. This is being driven by real corporate need rather than arb...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.