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  • Asia Economic Heatmap – Waiting for spring - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    The Asia macro picture suggests a slightly better performance in 2013 than 2012 on the whole • We expect soft US demand in Q1-2013; the worst fears of fiscal contraction have been avoided • FX implications: The pick-up in China’s IP cycle suppor...

  • Asia Economic Heatmap – Elusive signs of recovery - Updated Mon August 13, 2012

    Sluggish export momentum could persist in the months ahead • Inflation outlook is benign for rest of 2012, but watch out for local food-price spike in 2013 • Heatmap generates moderately bullish signal for USD vs. HKD, KRW and SGD; bearish for U...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 13-June-12 – Firmer ground for the RBI to cut rates - Updated Tue June 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012 • Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting • US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales • Market foc...

  • Asia Economic Heatmap – Good news is old news - Updated Thu June 7, 2012

    Market is likely to downplay any pick-up in exports and production in Q2-2012 • China’s slowdown and renewed recession risk in Europe are the over-riding concerns • We introduce short-term fundamental signals for Asian currencies, based on our Hea...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 29-May-12 – Asia’s production down cycle - Updated Mon May 28, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Australia – Retail sales likely to have decelerated • South Africa – Consumption to support GDP growth in Q1 • Euro area – Eurostat business surveys to echo weak flash PMIs • Market focus • Asia’s production has been w...

  • 28-May-12 – The market is still short USD-AXJ - Updated Sun May 27, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Asian rates – Scope for a further bond rally amid risk aversion • China – Spot hits 2012 high amid new two-way variability • Germany – Wage increases have not yet affected inflation • Market focus • Flow data suggest real-m...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...

  • 24-May-12 – China leads the way - Updated Wed May 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – April industrial production likely rebounded • United States – Durable goods orders likely recovered in April • Brazil – BRL: Be careful what you wish for Market focus • China’s State Council’s statement signals ...

  • 23-May-12 – China wobbles, Asia trembles - Updated Tue May 22, 2012

    • Top 3 data/events • Chile – We revise up our USD-CLP forecast • South Africa – SARB seen on hold despite CPI move higher • Euro area – Flash PMI indices likely to signal Q2 GDP contraction • Market focus • Asia’s exports to China have slowe...

  • 22-May-12 – The eye of the storm - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put this week, but may signal further easing • Malaysia – Both GDP and inflation likely slowed • Taiwan – IP to remain soft due to slowing exports Market focus • Market expectations for Wednesda...

  • 21-May-12 – Asia’s slowdown - Updated Sun May 20, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Hong Kong – April CPI inflation likely remained unchanged at 4.9% y/y • Nigeria – We now expect the CBN to keep the MPR on hold this year • UK – Door left ajar for QE3 as inflation concerns diminish • Market focus • Q1 T...

  • 18-May-12 – The epic quest for growth (and money) - Updated Thu May 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Greece is in the spotlight at G8 Summit; concrete measures are unlikely • Taiwan – April export orders to rebound on improving tech outlook • Thailand – Weaker external demand to be a drag on Q1 GDP Market focus ...

  • 17-May-12 – CNY flexibility amid China soft landing - Updated Wed May 16, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – The INR hits an all-time low versus the USD • Euro area – European Central Bank lifts Greek EMU exit taboo • Brazil – March retail sales likely rebounded Market focus • Fears of a China hard landing based on April r...

  • 16-May-12 – Under pressure - Updated Tue May 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q1 GDP likely improved, but not by much • Singapore – Q1 GDP likely to be revised up from earlier estimate • US – FOMC minutes to shine a light on the chances for further QE Market focus • The sell-off in IDR governm...

  • 15-May-12 – Relative value in Asia - Updated Mon May 14, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – A contraction in machinery orders is likely • UK – BoE’s Inflation Report to provide insight into the possibility of further QE • US – Consumer spending continues to expand Market focus • Asian bonds have underperfo...

  • 11-May-12 – Asia is feeling China’s slowdown - Updated Thu May 10, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – April WPI likely dropped, driven by food and mineral prices • China – April copper imports fell to eight-month lows • Japan – Domestic CGPI likely continued to rise in March Market focus • China’s demand from Asia is...

  • 8-May-12 – Steady hands at Asian central banks - Updated Mon May 7, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Malaysia – Export and import growth likely slowed in March • Greece – Political crisis as pro-bailout parties fail to gain a majority • US – We anticipate sub-par performance for NFIB small business optimism Market focus ...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.