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  • UK – On the up - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • UK activity remains buoyant: we forecast GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% q/q in H1-2014 • BoE policy makers are split over how much slack remains - and hence, at what point rates should rise • Near-term inflation pressures have eased, but wage growth i...

  • US − Not too hot, not too cold - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    We forecast 2014 US GDP growth of 2.4% • The Fed is on QE tapering auto pilot: the bar to altering its course is very high • We expect the first fed funds rate hike in Q2-2015 • Yields may break through 3% in the coming weeks, in our view, as m...

  • Asia – 2014: A milestone year - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    • We expect faster growth in most Asian economies in 2014 • Inflation pressure is manageable for now • Export growth should pick up and boost current accounts ...

  • United States – Payrolls March to the same beat - Updated Fri April 4, 2014

    March payrolls merely returned to trend; the report may dash hopes of a spring V-shaped bounce • This report is consistent with ongoing steady tapering of the Fed QE programme; QE should end in Q4 • There is still-ample slack, and wage growth is a...

  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Philippines – BSP to gradually normalise policy - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • BSP raises reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1ppt to 19%, starting its tightening cycle • We expect the RRR to be raised by another 1ppt at each of the two policy meetings in Q2-2014 • BSP is concerned about excess liquidity in the financial s...

  • Thailand – Roadmap for sustainable growth - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    • The political outlook is the biggest hurdle for Thailand amid ongoing deep political conflict • To avoid opportunity loss, Thailand urgently needs to re-establish political stability, implement economic reforms, and enhance ASEAN logistics connec...

  • Indonesia – A market ahead of itself? - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    News of Indonesia’s recovering economic fundamentals has spurred a local market rally • We cautiously maintain our bullish view of the Indonesian economy this year • We highlight three possible risks to Indonesia’s financial market; all with short...

  • China – Exports slow, but do not collapse - Updated Mon March 10, 2014

    • Adjusting for the holiday and inflated invoicing shows that underlying trade dynamics are still healthy • Inflated invoicing is contracting as banks become increasingly cautious • We forecast GDP growth of 7.6% in Q1-2014...

  • China – Minister Lou Jiwei’s 2014 to-do list - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    • China’s budgetary stance for 2014 is neutral; it forecasts a 2.1% deficit • SOEs are still not contributing much to the MoF budget, but the situation is gradually improving • The MoF is overhauling budget planning, improving transparency, cuttin...

  • United States – A hitchhiker’s guide to Feb NFPs - Updated Fri February 28, 2014

    We expect a bounce in NFPs after two consecutive weak prints; ongoing harsh weather adds uncertainty • The end of benefits for the long-term unemployed may drive down participation and unemployment rates • Fed QE tapering is on auto pilot, in our...

  • Euro area – Spring report card - Updated Fri February 28, 2014

    • The euro-area economy is accelerating; we expect more institutions to upgrade their growth forecasts • The ECB would consider QE if region-wide deflation threatened, but can tolerate prolonged low inflation • EUR-USD should grind lower but the ...

  • United States – Trade: ‘Re-shoring’ not in the data - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    The US-China trade corridor continues to be dominant for manufactured products • Evidence of ‘near-shoring’ in Mexico is feeble; Mexico is still a small player in many segments • The US foreign oil bill is shrinking, but the 2013 non-oil trade def...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • UK – Cut the slack - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook • We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016 ...

  • Angola-Brazil: Old loves die hard - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    • Africa is key to Brazil’s push to increase its strategic importance • As a fellow Lusophone country, relations with Angola are especially important • Brazilian companies have played a key role in Angola’s reconstruction; this is part of Angola...

  • Philippines – What Philippine clients think . . . - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Optimism about the Philippine economy remains strong, while USD-PHP expectations are more divided • Most of our respondents expect inflation to rise but remain within the central bank’s target zone in 2014 • The economy saw positive developments –...

  • United States – Gone with the snow - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Harsh weather conditions, which continue into February, are muddying the US data picture • There is more than the weather at play; but this cool-down is not a sign of a bigger downturn, in our view • We see the Fed remaining undistracted, muscling...

  • Turkey – Growth dynamic interrupted, not crushed - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Macro prudential measures and steep policy tightening will constrain real GDP growth • We do not envisage a recession scenario; fiscal expansion and exports will limit the downside risks • Politics remain uncertain and could stress markets again...



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Trade idea

01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatility should support carry currencies near-term...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.