Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year
• They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015
• Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...
• RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum
• We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015
• Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...
We expect Malaysia’s growth to slow to 5% in 2015 (2014: 6%)
We factor in a potential slowdown, but 5% is still close to its long-term average growth rate
We think the C/A will face headwinds; we expect a surplus of only 2.5% of GDP in 2015 (previ...
A pick-up in core inflation from current low levels is key to the timing of the first rate hike, in our view
• We still expect the first hike in September after core PCE inflation bottoms this summer
• The Fed may be underestimating the pass-throu...
• Private consumption is likely to anchor domestic growth amid external volatility
• A lower unemployment rate and more full-time employment are likely to boost income and consumption
• Trend growth could improve by 0.1ppt if 1ppt of those not in ...
US ‘big picture’ remains unchanged: Activity is firm, but wage growth and inflation are lacklustre
• This data will likely support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance; we see no rate hike before at least September
• Q4 GDP details are unfavourable for Q...
We expect the oil-price decline to have little impact on Vietnam’s trade sector; inflation likely to stay low
• The rise of higher-value-added industries should support Vietnam’s growth in the long run
• We see further upside risks to USD-VND in ...
EM-21 reserves declined by USD 28bn in December, led by declines in Russia, Turkey and Malaysia
• Asian central bank reserves increased by USD 10.3bn in December, the 10th consecutive monthly increase
• In Asia, while reserves continued to climb...
We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts
• Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts
• We expect most of the government’s recentl...
Top 3 data/events
• Australia – External and retail trade likely contracted in November
• Philippines – We expect good, but not great, export growth
• Germany – Industrial production likely increased at a steady rate
• Market focus
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