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  • China – Growth target at risk; more easing expected - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • GDP growth slowed further to 7.0% y/y in Q1, with few signs of a quick turnaround • Investment appears to be driving the downtrend; downside risk to our 2015 GDP growth forecast of 7.1% • We forecast one rate cut and one RRR cut by mid-2015, fol...

  • Risks and opportunities 2015 - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications. • We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...

  • Singapore – MAS in wait-and-see mode - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    • MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January • GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses • We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...

  • Philippines – What our clients think - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year • They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015 • Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Embracing reforms - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum • We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015 • Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...

  • Malaysia – Fading growth momentum - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    We expect Malaysia’s growth to slow to 5% in 2015 (2014: 6%) We factor in a potential slowdown, but 5% is still close to its long-term average growth rate We think the C/A will face headwinds; we expect a surplus of only 2.5% of GDP in 2015 (previ...

  • United States – The Fed and 2% inflation targeting - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    A pick-up in core inflation from current low levels is key to the timing of the first rate hike, in our view • We still expect the first hike in September after core PCE inflation bottoms this summer • The Fed may be underestimating the pass-throu...

  • Philippines – GDP growth anchored by labour force - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Private consumption is likely to anchor domestic growth amid external volatility • A lower unemployment rate and more full-time employment are likely to boost income and consumption • Trend growth could improve by 0.1ppt if 1ppt of those not in ...

  • United States – Still-firm growth, still-soft wages - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    US ‘big picture’ remains unchanged: Activity is firm, but wage growth and inflation are lacklustre • This data will likely support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance; we see no rate hike before at least September • Q4 GDP details are unfavourable for Q...

  • Vietnam – A story beyond oil - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    We expect the oil-price decline to have little impact on Vietnam’s trade sector; inflation likely to stay low • The rise of higher-value-added industries should support Vietnam’s growth in the long run • We see further upside risks to USD-VND in ...

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