We expect Malaysia’s growth to slow to 5% in 2015 (2014: 6%)
We factor in a potential slowdown, but 5% is still close to its long-term average growth rate
We think the C/A will face headwinds; we expect a surplus of only 2.5% of GDP in 2015 (previ...
A pick-up in core inflation from current low levels is key to the timing of the first rate hike, in our view
• We still expect the first hike in September after core PCE inflation bottoms this summer
• The Fed may be underestimating the pass-throu...
• Private consumption is likely to anchor domestic growth amid external volatility
• A lower unemployment rate and more full-time employment are likely to boost income and consumption
• Trend growth could improve by 0.1ppt if 1ppt of those not in ...
US ‘big picture’ remains unchanged: Activity is firm, but wage growth and inflation are lacklustre
• This data will likely support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance; we see no rate hike before at least September
• Q4 GDP details are unfavourable for Q...
We expect the oil-price decline to have little impact on Vietnam’s trade sector; inflation likely to stay low
• The rise of higher-value-added industries should support Vietnam’s growth in the long run
• We see further upside risks to USD-VND in ...
EM-21 reserves declined by USD 28bn in December, led by declines in Russia, Turkey and Malaysia
• Asian central bank reserves increased by USD 10.3bn in December, the 10th consecutive monthly increase
• In Asia, while reserves continued to climb...
We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts
• Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts
• We expect most of the government’s recentl...
Top 3 data/events
• Australia – External and retail trade likely contracted in November
• Philippines – We expect good, but not great, export growth
• Germany – Industrial production likely increased at a steady rate
• Market focus
We present the fourth monthly Standard Chartered-Premise Consumer Price Tracker for Nigeria
• Our SC-PCPT reveals a 0.17% m/m decline in consumer staples in December
• This followed a more pronounced price increase in November
• Pass-through from...
• Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus
• Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election
• ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline
• Uganda will benefit from a lower import bill, but some oil exploration may be deferred
• Government spending likely to increase ahead of 2016 elections
• BoU seen tightening interest policy in 2015 in response to pressure on the UGX
• Constitutional referendum, elections make politics a key focus in 2015
• Donors postpone budget support; budget deficit likely to widen
• USD-TZS upside pressure seen, despite capital-account liberalisation
• Growth remains weak – lower price of imported oil to provide some reprieve
• Politics will remain key to labour relations and of wage negotiations
• Debt ratios to peak at a high level, signalling ongoing vulnerability
• Ramped-up infrastructure spending is expected to boost growth in 2015
• SOE debt is rising rapidly
• We still expect the authorities to devalue the SLL.
• Growth is likely to pick up but remain modest
• Fiscal consolidation should remain a key objective
• Senegal benefits from lower commodity prices
• Weak oil earnings contribute to Nigeria’s structural challenges; more reform is anticipated
• Fiscal policy in 2015 plans to adopt a scenario-based approach to accommodate the weaker oil price
• Elections still represent a key risk; the NGN is l...
• Infrastructure and mining-sector investment will help to drive growth of 4.9% in 2015
• Downside risks remain from lower commodity prices and a weaker ZAR
• Following a clear election victory for SWAPO in December 2014, the political outlook rem...
• Growth outlook remains strong
• Some fiscal consolidation is expected, but the deficit is likely to remain high
• Frelimo wins the election, but loses ground
• Diversification of trading partners and tourist arrivals away from Europe is supporting growth
• Inflationary pressures will likely remain subdued in 2015 with lower commodity prices
• The BoM will likely look to start tightening interest rates ...
• Kenya will probably benefit from lower oil prices in the very near term
• Credit growth is healthy; rebasing has revealed a faster growth trend
• Issues around security and meaningful fiscal devolution must still be resolved...
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