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  • Malaysia – Fading growth momentum - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    We expect Malaysia’s growth to slow to 5% in 2015 (2014: 6%) We factor in a potential slowdown, but 5% is still close to its long-term average growth rate We think the C/A will face headwinds; we expect a surplus of only 2.5% of GDP in 2015 (previ...

  • United States – The Fed and 2% inflation targeting - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    A pick-up in core inflation from current low levels is key to the timing of the first rate hike, in our view • We still expect the first hike in September after core PCE inflation bottoms this summer • The Fed may be underestimating the pass-throu...

  • Philippines – GDP growth anchored by labour force - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Private consumption is likely to anchor domestic growth amid external volatility • A lower unemployment rate and more full-time employment are likely to boost income and consumption • Trend growth could improve by 0.1ppt if 1ppt of those not in ...

  • United States – Still-firm growth, still-soft wages - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    US ‘big picture’ remains unchanged: Activity is firm, but wage growth and inflation are lacklustre • This data will likely support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance; we see no rate hike before at least September • Q4 GDP details are unfavourable for Q...

  • Vietnam – A story beyond oil - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    We expect the oil-price decline to have little impact on Vietnam’s trade sector; inflation likely to stay low • The rise of higher-value-added industries should support Vietnam’s growth in the long run • We see further upside risks to USD-VND in ...

  • EM-21 – Diverging FX reserves trends in Asia - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    EM-21 reserves declined by USD 28bn in December, led by declines in Russia, Turkey and Malaysia • Asian central bank reserves increased by USD 10.3bn in December, the 10th consecutive monthly increase • In Asia, while reserves continued to climb...

  • India – Looking ahead to 2015 - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts • Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts • We expect most of the government’s recentl...

  • 08-Jan – ASEAN reforms as oil prices fall - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – External and retail trade likely contracted in November • Philippines – We expect good, but not great, export growth • Germany – Industrial production likely increased at a steady rate • Market focus • Indonesia...

  • Nigeria – SC-PCPT fell 0.17%m/m in December - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    We present the fourth monthly Standard Chartered-Premise Consumer Price Tracker for Nigeria • Our SC-PCPT reveals a 0.17% m/m decline in consumer staples in December • This followed a more pronounced price increase in November • Pass-through from...

  • Zambia – Focus on the presidential by-election - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus • Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election • ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline ...

  • Uganda – Oil impact is mixed - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Uganda will benefit from a lower import bill, but some oil exploration may be deferred • Government spending likely to increase ahead of 2016 elections • BoU seen tightening interest policy in 2015 in response to pressure on the UGX ...

  • Tanzania – Key elections in 2015 - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Constitutional referendum, elections make politics a key focus in 2015 • Donors postpone budget support; budget deficit likely to widen • USD-TZS upside pressure seen, despite capital-account liberalisation ...

  • South Africa – Some reprieve - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth remains weak – lower price of imported oil to provide some reprieve • Politics will remain key to labour relations and of wage negotiations • Debt ratios to peak at a high level, signalling ongoing vulnerability ...

  • Sierra Leone – Ebola to constrain growth - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Ramped-up infrastructure spending is expected to boost growth in 2015 • SOE debt is rising rapidly • We still expect the authorities to devalue the SLL. ...

  • Senegal – Ongoing fiscal consolidation - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is likely to pick up but remain modest • Fiscal consolidation should remain a key objective • Senegal benefits from lower commodity prices ...

  • Nigeria – Elections and oil fears - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Weak oil earnings contribute to Nigeria’s structural challenges; more reform is anticipated • Fiscal policy in 2015 plans to adopt a scenario-based approach to accommodate the weaker oil price • Elections still represent a key risk; the NGN is l...

  • Namibia – Vulnerable to external conditions - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Infrastructure and mining-sector investment will help to drive growth of 4.9% in 2015 • Downside risks remain from lower commodity prices and a weaker ZAR • Following a clear election victory for SWAPO in December 2014, the political outlook rem...

  • Mozambique – Fiscal consolidation needed - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth outlook remains strong • Some fiscal consolidation is expected, but the deficit is likely to remain high • Frelimo wins the election, but loses ground ...

  • Mauritius – Growth is accelerating - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Diversification of trading partners and tourist arrivals away from Europe is supporting growth • Inflationary pressures will likely remain subdued in 2015 with lower commodity prices • The BoM will likely look to start tightening interest rates ...

  • Kenya – Growth optimism and security - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Kenya will probably benefit from lower oil prices in the very near term • Credit growth is healthy; rebasing has revealed a faster growth trend • Issues around security and meaningful fiscal devolution must still be resolved...



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