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  • Brazil: Presidential election preview - Updated Wed October 1, 2014

    First-round voting on 5 October may not produce a winner; a second-round vote is likely on 26 October • President Dilma has retaken the lead in recent polls and the BRL remains the regional underperformer • Marina’s inability to consolidate early ...

  • Brazil – Chance for change - Updated Wed August 27, 2014

    Eduardo Campos’ (PSB) death has turned Brazil’s presidential elections upside down • Marina Silva’s confirmation as the PSB’s candidate has dramatically increased its chances of victory • We expect a positive market response to a Marina Silva wi...

  • El Niño – Blowing hot and cold on food markets - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    • Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields • Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season • Such an event could elevate inflation ...

  • Angola-Brazil: Old loves die hard - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    • Africa is key to Brazil’s push to increase its strategic importance • As a fellow Lusophone country, relations with Angola are especially important • Brazilian companies have played a key role in Angola’s reconstruction; this is part of Angola...

  • Argentina-Brazil: It takes two to tango - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher • Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil • The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant ...

  • Brazil – Weaker growth for 2013 - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Most of the coincident and leading indicators point to Q2-2013 being as weak as Q1-2013 • Additionally, the breakdown of key indicators suggests H2-2013 will be worse than initially thought • We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.2% from ...

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