First-round voting on 5 October may not produce a winner; a second-round vote is likely on 26 October
• President Dilma has retaken the lead in recent polls and the BRL remains the regional underperformer
• Marina’s inability to consolidate early ...
Eduardo Campos’ (PSB) death has turned Brazil’s presidential elections upside down
• Marina Silva’s confirmation as the PSB’s candidate has dramatically increased its chances of victory
• We expect a positive market response to a Marina Silva wi...
• Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields
• Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season
• Such an event could elevate inflation ...
• Africa is key to Brazil’s push to increase its strategic importance
• As a fellow Lusophone country, relations with Angola are especially important
• Brazilian companies have played a key role in Angola’s reconstruction; this is part of Angola...
Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher
• Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil
• The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant
Most of the coincident and leading indicators point to Q2-2013 being as weak as Q1-2013
• Additionally, the breakdown of key indicators suggests H2-2013 will be worse than initially thought
• We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.2% from ...
Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013
• External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards
• By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...
We expect stronger but moderate growth in 2013
• Inflation will remain a concern and monetary policy will be tighter
• The reform agenda remains light as 2014 elections approach...
Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
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